Hi @loshell,
Yes. I've decided to exit on Strawman and in real life (at breakeven) unfortunately (after taking some profits near the peak and re-entering recently).
The main reasons behind my decision are a) the extended timelines that were revealed in the recent scoping study, b) the issue of raising capital to further progress Project O and continue to validate the other resources and c) the size of the CAPEX ($600m+ USD) revealed in the scoping study relative to the current market cap.
It is disappointing because SHP should have raised equity above 20c/share and this overhang (problem b) wouldn't be facing the market. If the share price had continued higher at that point (without the termination of their CEO), the gap between CAPEX and market cap also wouldn't have been as large (problem c).
In saying that, the industry fundamentals (food shortages and long-term fertiliser prices) remain very strong and long term this could/should still be a winner. However, the main question is the level of dilution between now and then. Could this be a Baby Jansen (BHP) for a major to swoop in early on and drop an early 40c bid? Certainly a possibility, but at this stage, it is probably unlikely.
Ultimately, my key learning is that with these resource plays, the be-all-end-all determinant is CAPEX, not NPV (that's why CXO was such a winner, it was so easy to move into construction). I don't necessarily see SHP falling significantly from here at any point either at a $40-50m MC (very low relative to their NPV and resource size!), but the register will start shifting over now from those who expected a shorter-term play to those who are now buckling in for the long-term development play (PFS, DFS, approvals, and hopefully funding and construction, across the next several years).
Personally, I won't rule out re-entering SHP once the capital raise is conducted (next month or two) and I can see a funding pathway through the PFS and DFS (although the orphan period is a difficult part of the timeline to invest across). In the meantime, I'm going to double down on other high conviction (profitable) plays, namely ENA and CXZ.
Hope that helps!
