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SHP have released their quarterly report and it appears that many areas of this proposed project are progressing well, the report highlights are as follows:
MARCH 2024 QUARTERLY ACTIVITIES REPORT
South Harz Potash Limited (ASX:SHP) (South Harz or the Company) reports on its activities for the quarter ended 31 March 2024.”
ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
30 April 2024
Highlights
• Ohmgebirge Development Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) at an advanced stage of completion and on track for delivery in coming weeks.
• Commercial discussions with Ohmgebirge neighbour, DEUSA International GmbH (Deusa), at an advanced stage to enable implementation of proposed brownfield development pathway.
• Non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) executed with Euroports Germany GmbH & Co. KG and Euroports Belgium NV (collectively, Euroports) relating to the storage, handling and export of potash through a transport facility in Rostock (Germany) and/or Antwerp (Belgium).
• Spatial Planning Application for Ohmgebirge in progress with regulatory authority, Thüringer Landesverwaltungsamt (TLVwA), with decision expected in Q2 CY2024.
• South Harz to enter a lower cost, internal project optimisation phase following completion of the PFS, in line with current potash market conditions.
• Due diligence granted and discussions commenced with another party in respect of a potential commercial transaction.
• Appointment of Non-Executive Director, Len Jubber, to the role of Non-Executive Chairman, following retirement of previous Chairman, Ian Farmer.
• Non-Executive Director, Seamus Cornelius, resigned from the Board to avoid potential conflicts.
South Hartz Potash latest announcement relating to progress of PFS and corporate interest
OHMGEBIRGE PROJECT AND CORPORATE UPDATE
South Harz Potash Limited (ASX:SHP) (South Harz or the Company) provides a corporate and project update on its flagship Ohmgebirge Potash Development (Ohmgebirge), located in central Germany.
The Ohmgebirge Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) remains on track for completion and market release during early Q2 CY2024. In parallel, commercial partnership discussions with adjoining project and infrastructure owner, NDH-E/DEUSA International GmbH (Deusa), are progressing well. Successful delivery of a definitive agreement with Deusa for long-term shaft access and utilisation will enable implementation of the targeted brownfield development pathway for Ohmgebirge. This pathway offers substantial time, capital cost and footprint advantages versus greenfield shaft construction.
The process of developing this project is slowly moving ahead which is good news and with the note that there is corporate interest in the company/mine improves the prospect that this will eventually go ahead,
The latest announcement from SHP relates to a MOU signed with Euroports
Highlights
South Harz Potash Limited (ASX:SHP) (South Harz or the Company) is pleased to advise that it has executed a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Euroports Germany GmbH & Co. KG and Euroports Belgium NV (collectively, Euroports).
The MoU contemplates South Harz and Euroports advancing commercial discussions towards a potential longterm agreement for the storage, handling and export of potash product from South Harz’s flagship Ohmgebirge Potash Development (Ohmgebirge), located in central Germany, through one of Euroports’ operated facilities in Rostock (Germany) and/or Antwerp (Belgium). Figure 1 depicts the location of these export facilities along with the key overland transport routes linking them to Ohmgebirge.
Another step closer to delivering the project
Latest announcement from SHP in relation to the Ohmgebirge development
PROGRESS UPDATE ON OHMGEBIRGE PFS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH DEUSA
• Detailed technical and commercial discussions advancing with Ohmgebirge neighbour and owner of Bernterode shafts, NDH-E/DEUSA.
• Key PFS workstreams continue to progress on schedule; now achieved 90% overall completion level.
• Final PFS delivery on track for completion in early Q2 CY2024, inclusive of brownfield Bernterode shaft and infrastructure utilization as base case development pathway.
• Spatial Planning Application proceeding through regulatory evaluation process; targeted receipt of spatial planning approval on track for Q2 CY2024.
South Harz Potash Limited (ASX:SHP) (South Harz or the Company) is pleased to provide an update on progress of the Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) and associated activities for its flagship Ohmgebirge Potash Development (Ohmgebirge) located in central Germany.
Long-term shaft access and infrastructure utilisation
Detailed technical and commercial discussions with NDH-E/DEUSA International GmbH (Deusa), the owner of the neighbouring property to Ohmgebirge, continue to advance following execution of the non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the parties during November 2023 (refer South Harz ASX release dated 2 November 2023, MOU executed for existing shaft and infrastructure utilization).
The MoU contemplates ongoing collaboration between the parties to advance towards a definitive commercial agreement allowing South Harz long-term access and utilization rights for Deusa’s Bernterode shaft and associated infrastructure. It also grants South Harz binding exclusivity until 31 March 2024 to reach definitive commercial agreement.
Following signing of the MoU, South Harz and Deusa have been working constructively in seeking the optimal engineering, environmental and economic outcome for Ohmgebirge. Successful delivery of a definitive agreement for long-term access and utilization will enable implementation of the targeted brownfield development pathway for Ohmgebirge offering substantial time, capital cost and footprint advantages versus greenfield shaft construction.
The current preliminary layout contemplates the raw ore storage in the area adjacent to the shafts along with the purification. The solution will then be transported via a pipeline the short 1.5km distance to the site by the Bernterode railway siding. The evaporators, crystallisers and product storage will be adjacent to the railway and loadout facility.
Ohmgebirge PFS approaching final phase
The Ohmgebirge PFS is now approximately 90% complete overall and remains on track for completion in early Q2 CY2024. All key PFS workstreams continue to progress well, with the overarching focus now moving to more advanced levels of engineering thoroughness, estimate accuracy, and robust contingency planning.
Capital and operating cost estimations are in the process of being conclusively assembled by leading global engineering consultant and study manager, Hatch plc. This is a function of staged finalization of expected utility requirements (water, power, gas) as well as receipt of final estimations for major equipment sizing, installation costs, project delivery schedules and ‘hard dollar’ supplier quotations.
Progressive cost estimate finalization is inclusive of fulsome purchase versus lease trade-off analysis on key items across relevant construction phases. Quality risk analysis is also a major focus as various workstreams approach close-out.
Spatial Planning approval process progressing
Having been submitted in early December 2023 (refer South Harz ASX release dated 8 December 2023, Spatial Planning Application submitted), South Harz’s Spatial Planning Application for Ohmgebirge is now proceeding through the regulatory evaluation process. As announced last month, this includes public review of the documentation and undertaking of scheduled consultation meetings and other endeavours (refer South Harz ASX release dated 11 January 2024, Spatial Planning Application achieves important milestone).
Photographs copyright: Paul-Philipp Braun
This permitting process remains on track for targeted receipt of a spatial planning decision during Q2 CY2024. The overall permitting approach and regulatory schedule for Ohmgebirge is being led by highly experienced South Harz Regional Director, Dr Babette Winter.
NEW CHAIR APPOINTMENT
South Harz Potash Limited (ASX:SHP) (South Harz or the Company) advises that existing non-executive director, Mr Len Jubber, has been appointed to the role of Non-Executive Chairman, effective from 1 February 2024. Len’s elevation to the Chair role follows the decision of incumbent South Harz Chairman, Mr Ian Farmer, to retire from the Board for personal reasons.
Len was appointed to the South Harz Board in March 2021 and is a civil engineering by training. With a professional mining and executive career spanning more than 30 years, he possesses a wealth of technical, commercial, and listed company leadership experience.
A good decision by SHP as the continuity of appointing an existing non-executive directorshows that SHP has confidence it its team to deliver this project,
SPATIAL PLANNING APPLICATION ACHIEVES IMPORTANT MILESTONE
South Harz Potash Limited (ASX:SHP) (South Harz or the Company) is pleased to advise that Spatial Planning Application (Application) documentation submitted for its flagship Ohmgebirge Potash Development (Ohmgebirge) has been made available to the public. Release of the Application documentation allows for the next phase of public consultation and signals another important step in the advancement of the Ohmgebirge approval process.
The Application documentation was prepared in conjunction with experienced environmental and permitting consultant, ERM, and includes an explanatory report, an environmental impact study, a preliminary species protection assessment and a spatial impact assessment document (refer SHP ASX release dated 8 December 2023, Spatial Planning Application Submitted). It is based on a brownfield development of Ohmgebirge which includes utilisation of the neighbouring Bernterode shaft infrastructure owned by NDH-E/DEUSA International GmbH (refer SHP ASX release dated 2 November 2023, MOU Executed for Existing Shaft and Infrastructure Utilisation).
As previously announced, a successful initial consultation meeting for South Harz’s Ohmgebirge Spatial Planning impact assessment was held during September 2023 (refer SHP ASX release dated 21 September 2023, Ohmgebirge Permitting Process on Track). No significant concerns or objections to the proposed development of Ohmgebirge were raised through that initial hearing process.
The Spatial Planning procedure is a fundamental approval process for infrastructure and industrial projects in Germany which occupy more than 10 hectares surface area. It involves assessing the impact of a project on the landscape, environment, economy, and broader social aspects. The process is designed to ensure the balancing of interests between the project proponent and all local stakeholders.
Following targeted receipt of Spatial Planning approval and post completion of the Ohmgebirge Environmental Impact Assessment (both expected H1 2024), South Harz is set to proceed with submission of a General Operating Permit for build approval. The overall permitting process for Ohmgebirge is being led by highly experienced South Harz Regional Director, Dr Babette Winter.
Management is slowly de-risking the project and with the PFS due out in a few months this should give the SP momentum to move higher
SHP have announced a capital raise to fund the finalisation of the PFS, with current cash at $2.4 Million at 30/9 so would be around $2.0 Million now plus the $2.4 Million for the raise gives SHP around $4.4 Million in cash with no debt which should fund the company for around 18 months so no further CR on the horizon, Announcement as follows:
A$2.4 MILLION CAPITAL RAISING TO FUND EXTENDED OHMGEBIRGE PROJECT PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDY
South Harz Potash Limited (ASX:SHP) (South Harz or the Company) is pleased to announce that it has received binding commitments for a placement to sophisticated and professional investors to raise approximately A$1.25 million (before costs) at an issue price of A$0.023 per share (Placement). Up to A$1.2 million in additional funds is also set to be raised via a 1-for-15 pro-rata non-renounceable rights issue to eligible shareholders (Rights Issue). The Company has engaged Morgans Corporate Limited (ACN 453 414 852) (AFSL 235407) (Morgans) to act as lead manager and bookrunner to the Placement and Rights Issue.
• Up to approximately A$2.4 million in new funding to be raised via Placement and Rights Issue.
• Funds raised to finalise delivery of Ohmgebirge Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) targeting utilisation of the brownfield Bernterode shaft infrastructure as the base case development pathway.
• Well supported by existing institutional and retail shareholders including Australian and European investors.
• Directors to take up their full rights and partially underwrite a combined total of $170,000 of the Rights Issue.
• Ongoing cost efficiency initiatives delivering streamlined organizational presence and activities.
South Harz Managing Director and CEO, Luis da Silva, commented,
South Harz Board and management continue to minimise expenditure unrelated to completion of the PFS and appreciate the support of the existing shareholder base, who have demonstrated an unwavering belief in the immense potential value inherent in our flagship Ohmgebirge Potash Project. The team are dedicated to advancing this world-class development opportunity and committed to becoming the sustainable European MOP supplier of choice.
We look forward to sharing these outcomes with our current and potential future investors in early CY2024.”
My edited notes of the latest Hannam & Partners valuation is as follows:
Spatial Planning Application submitted,
PFS 85% complete South Harz Potash (“SHP”) has announced that the pre-feasibility study (PFS) for the company’s Ohmgebirge potash project in Germany remains on track for completion in Q2 2024 and is 85% complete. In addition, several workstreams have been completed to a level that are approaching definitive feasibility study (DFS) standard that should expedite the upcoming definitive feasibility study. SHP has also submitted the Spatial Planning Application for the project that is one of the key permitting documents. This is in line with guidance with the regulator having a six month period to evaluate the document. We maintain a valuation of A$0.44/share. We expect the shares to rerate as the planning, permitting, and pre-feasibility processes advance.
Spatial planning application submitted in line with guidance SHP has submitted the spatial planning application for Ohmgebirge based on the brownfield development of the project. The documentation includes an explanatory report, environmental impact study, preliminary species protection assessment and a spatial impact assessment document. The document was submitted to the Thüringer Landesverwaltungsamt (TLVwA) that now has a period of six months to consider the application that should be made available to the public in January 2024. We note no material concerns were raised during the initial consultation meeting that was held in September 2023. Once Spatial Planning approval is granted and the environmental baseline study is completed, the company will submit the application for the General Operating Permit.
PFS workstreams now 85% complete, on track for Q2 2024 SHP has confirmed the PFS for Ohmgebirge is now 85% complete with the mine plan at near definitive levels of accuracy and the process flowsheet is at 90% of definitive study levels. The resource and maiden reserve are also approaching completion. Preliminary connection estimates have been provided by the suppliers of power, water, and gas. Technical discussions are ongoing with the owner of the neighbouring Bernterode shaft infrastructure (NDH-E/DEUSA) that should reduce both the timeline to production and initial capex for Ohmgebirge. SHP is evaluating a number of scenarios for development including a phased approach. This timeline is in line with management’s guidance from early November and will allow for the inclusion of Bernterode’s infrastructure.
Valuation: A$0.44/sh target price; significant debt funding likely available Given the early stage of development, future funding requirements, and uncertain nature of our modelling assumptions, we apply a 0.2x target P/NPV to our June 2024E A$1.6bn valuation to derive a valuation of A$0.44. The shares are clearly not currently trading in line with the underlying value of the project, in our view. The two releases demonstrate clear progress through the permitting and design process that should ultimately unlock the value of the project. The submission of the Environmental Impact Assessment (Q1’24) and completion of the PFS (Q2’24), should be the main upcoming catalysts, resulting in SHP’s share price reconnecting with the NAV of Ohmgebirge. The major catalysts beyond this are the DFS that should be completed by YE 2024 with final permitting and project development potentially commencing by the end of 2025.
I am still a believer in this company and look forward to the next 12 months
SHP have submitted the planning application for the Ohmgebirge development as the the ASX announcement:
SPATIAL PLANNING APPLICATION SUBMITTED
South Harz Potash Limited (ASX:SHP) (South Harz or the Company) is pleased to announce that its wholly owned subsidiary, Südharz Kali GmbH, has achieved an important milestone and submitted the comprehensive Spatial Planning Application (Application) for its flagship Ohmgebirge Potash Development to the responsible regulatory authority, Thüringer Landesverwaltungsamt (TLVwA).
The Application documentation was prepared in conjunction with international environmental and permitting consultancy, ERM, and includes an explanatory report, an environmental impact study, a preliminary species protection assessment and a spatial impact assessment document. It is based on a brownfield development of Ohmgebirge which includes utilisation of the neigbouring Bernterode shaft infrastructure owned by NDHE/DEUSA International GmbH (refer SHP ASX release dated 2 November 2023, MOU Executed For Existing Shaft and Infrastructure Utilisation).
Under the German Spatial Planning Act, the TLVwA now has a regulated period of six (6) months to consider and decide on the Application. During this time, the Application documentation will be made available to the public (expected to occur from January 2024) and further consultation facilitated.
As previously announced, a successful initial consultation meeting for South Harz’s Ohmgebirge Spatial Planning impact assessment was held during September 2023 (refer SHP ASX release dated 21 September 2023, Ohmgebirge Permitting Process On Track). No significant concerns or objections to the proposed development of Ohmgebirge were raised through that initial hearing process.
The Spatial Planning procedure is a fundamental step in the approval process for all infrastructure and industrial projects in Germany which occupy more than 10 hectares surface area. It involves assessing the impact of a project on the landscape, environment, economy, and broader social aspects. The process is designed to ensure the balancing of interests between the project proponent and all local stakeholders.
Following targeted receipt of Spatial Planning approval in mid-2024, and post completion of the Ohmgebirge environmental baseline studies (expected Q1 CY 2024), South Harz is set to proceed with submission of a General Operating Permit application for build approval. The overall permitting process for Ohmgebirge is being led by highly experienced South Harz Regional Director, Dr Babette Winter.
South Harz Managing Director and CEO, Luis da Silva, stated, "The German permitting process is streamlined and offers the benefit of one leading authority regulating each project development approval. This approach delivers a high degree of predictability in respect of the overall process and provides us with a strong degree of confidence with respect to the timely securement of these approvals.”
South Harz Regional Director, Babette Winter, commented, "The submission of the Spatial Planning Application documentation is a significant day for South Harz and the Ohmgebirge Development. Our consultation with local stakeholders has been consistent, purposeful and constructive. It has also demonstrated the strong community support for development of Ohmgebirge and our commitment to world-class environmental and social practices.”
SHP have released an announcement to the market as follows:
OHMGEBIRGE PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDY UPDATE
• Key PFS workstreams advancing on schedule, with overall progress now past 85% completion.
• Technical and commercial discussions advancing with neighbouring Bernterode owner, NDH-E/DEUSA, for long-term utilization of existing shaft and associated infrastructure in developing Ohmgebirge.
• Final PFS delivery on track for scheduled completion in early Q2 CY2024, inclusive of Bernterode shaft and infrastructure utilization as base case development pathway.
• Comprehensive Ohmgebirge Spatial Planning application to be submitted imminently to key regulator.
South Harz Potash Limited (ASX:SHP) (South Harz or the Company) provides an update on the progress of the Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for its flagship Ohmgebirge Potash Development (Ohmgebirge) in central Germany. The PFS process is being led by highly experienced South Harz Chief Operating Officer (COO), Lawrence Berthelet, in conjunction with global potash development leader, Hatch.
Recent key milestones achieved by the combined engineering team (Hatch, K-UTEC, ERCOSPLAN and Micon), include:
• Mine plan nearing definitive-level accuracy, with ongoing optimizations driving further efficiencies.
• Updated Ohmgebirge Mineral Resource estimate and maiden Ore Reserve declaration approaching completion.
• Baseline process flow sheet, including mass balance, following bulk sample optimization evaluations, at 90% definitive feasibility study level.
• Surface water containment design finalised including 100-year run-off event capture capacity.
• Power, water and gas supplies have been identified and a preliminary estimate for connection has been provided by each of the local utility supplier. All equipment and contract work required has been included in the estimate.
• Product storage and loadout strategy optimized to maximize rail freight utlisation, thereby reducing truck traffic and minimizing GHG emissions.
• Ongoing value engineering activities driving capital and operating cost efficiencies for a brownfield development.
Technical and commercial discussions advancing with neighbouring Bernterode shafts owner, NDH-E/DEUSA, focused on achieving the optimal engineering, environmental and economic outcomes for Ohmgebirge under a brownfield development route. Further business development opportunities that may give rise to increased technical and commercial synergies between the two operations are also being explored.
With the development now being brownfield rather than greenfield this should reduce the Capex significantly, all in all SHP is definitely moving in the right direction and give it 6 months the SP should re-rate.
So a question to @TEPCapital . What is the position of South Harz Potash Limited now?
Should we wait Ohmgebrirge development? Is all wasted?
Hannam and Partners recent report maintains 0.44c by Dec 23 LOL. Mr Market says 0.035 today.
There has been some recent activity Re the permitting process with
Also a recent share purchase plan was over subscribed.
My edited notes of the Hannam & Partners valuation is as follows and is worth a read as I believe that the market has not woken up to the true value of SHP. There is some concern in relation to funding but with the expected reduced capex then this should be feasible.
South Harz Potash (“SHP”) announced a capital raise of A$2.4m through a placement at A$0.03/share with an attached 1 for 4 option with an exercise price of A$0.08/share and a three year term. Board members committed A$0.245m to the issue and a further A$0.99m was raised as part of a Share Purchase Plan.
Actual total funds raised with SPP and placement strengthens treasury with an additional amount of A$3.6m million
So SHP is well-funded to facilitate ongoing advancement of the Ohmgebirge potash development, including completion of the PFS currently in progress, targeted for completion later this year
The main near term catalysts for the stock should be the submission of the spatial planning application for the project and the completion of the PFS, both of which should occur before the end of the year.
The company also announced the appointment of Seamus Cornelius as a NED. Mr Cornelius is an experienced entrepreneur and executive who is currently executive chair of Danakali, which sold the Colluli potash project in Eritrea for US$166m of cash in 2023.
The Hannam & Partners target for SHP is A$0.44/share, suggesting ~1,000% upside. Brownfield development would cut capex and enhance NPV SHP’s preferred option is for a brownfield development route for Ohmgebirge that would utilise the existing nearby shaft infrastructure at Bernterode, 1,500m from the deposit, and a non-binding consent order has been signed with the shaft’s owner, NDH-E/Deucalion.
The previous scoping study returned a NPV8% of US$1,279m with a 26.6% IRR and US$620m initial capex (capital intensity of US$620/t MOP vs. US$800-1200/t greenfield peers). Construction could start in 2025 with first production in 2028.
1Mtpa of Muriate of Potash (MOP) and 2Mtpa of salt (NaCl) will be produced (1Mtpa sold with remaining backfilled) over a 21-year mine-life. All-in costs were estimated at US$92.6/t of MOP, net of US$79/t salt by-product credits (salt accounts for 17% of life of mine sales). The project offers good access to western European markets through the German road, rail, barge, and port network.
MOP prices have pulled back but demographics should drive higher MOP prices initially surged in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine with FOB Vancouver prices peaking at US$1,202/t in April 2022 driven by concerns about supply, with Russia accounting for 19% of supply and its close ally Belarus accounting for 17%. These have since faded with prices pulling back and currently trading at US$341/t.
Over the longer term we expect prices to be driven by global demographics and the need to optimise the world’s capacity to sustain a population that the UN forecasts to increase from 8 billion at present to 10.4 billion by 2100.
Valuation: A$0.44/sh target price; significant debt funding likely available Given the early stage of development, future funding requirements and uncertain nature of our modelling assumptions, we apply a 0.2x target P/NPV to our June 2024E A$1.6bn valuation to derive a target price per share of A$0.44, ~1,000% above the current share price.
The shares are not currently trading in line with the underlying value of the project, in our view. We believe that the completion of the PFS should be a material catalyst that should result in SHP share price reconnecting with the NAV of Ohmgebirge.
In our view, Ohmgebirge is a world class project in a low risk jurisdiction. In addition, the brownfield development route should cut the time to production and initial capex. No further drilling is required to reach Feasibility Study stage, allowing SHP to keep a lean cost structure ahead of project financing if just focusing on Ohmgebirge.
Hannam & Partners “Our price target (June 24)for South Harz is A$0.44/share, suggesting ~1,000% upside.”
It’s gonna be a wild few months to get to that by June 24.????.
South Harz Just had an oversubscribed SPP and things still seem to be moving along. Recent key appointments. Next catalyst may be the PFS with the potential optional brownfield scenario.
previous report “46c by Jun23”
This investment has been a disaster for me and has wiped out most of my invested capital in it. Luckily I had enough sense at the time to make it a relatively small allocation (now it is a lot smaller!) but it has been a humbling and learning experience on:
SHP have just released research by Hannam & Partners
Most of the discussion was around the various opinions as per my previous post, but the valuation is interesting, which is as follows:
Valuation: A$0.42/sh target price; significant debt funding likely available
Given the early stage of development, future funding requirements and uncertain nature of our modelling assumptions, we apply a 0.2x target P/NPV to our June 2023E US$1.1bn valuation to derive a fully diluted target price per share of A$0.42, >14x the current share price. No further drilling is required to reach FS stage, allowing SHP to keep a lean cost structure ahead of project financing if just focusing on Ohmgebirge.
The above valuation is a 1305% premium to the current price of $0.03 so there is certainly some upside to this stock
Appointment of deeply experienced potash executive, Lawrence Berthelet, as a non-executive director.
Looks like a great appointment CEO appointment to be finalised soon.
“CEO search process is now at an advanced stage with an appointment expected to be finalised”
“South Harz Potash is pleased to announce the appointment of Mr Lawrence Berthelet as a non-executive director of the Company and a member of its Technical Committee.
Lawrence recently stepped down from the position of Head of Mining Division at global agriculture and chemicals business, EuroChem. Prior to that he held several senior management roles across seven years at potash major, The Mosaic Company, including Vice President, Capital (North America) and Vice President, Engineering and Capital (Potash Business Unit).
From ella, dpa08/29/2022,08:51
Getting raw materials from a depth of 700 meters, in Germany? In times of coal phase-out and digitalization, mining somehow has a touch of the past. Experts say that could change soon."There is a rethink." High raw material prices, bottlenecks not only in gas due to the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine and increasing global demand made domestic raw materials interesting for construction, industry, agriculture and the energy transition. One of the largest projects: A potash deposit is to be developed in Thuringia for fertilizer production.
It is about a potash mine in which the Australian exploration company South Harz Potash Ltd plans to invest 620 million US dollars (623 million euros). The company has purchased mining licenses for the Ohm Mountains and other regions in northern Thuringia.According to its regional director, Babette Winter, around five million euros have flowed into two promising exploratory wells in Worbis and Haynrode. It's about potassium chloride for mineral fertilizers.
It would be the first new mine of this size in Germany for decades if the company's concept works with the German subsidiary Südharz Kali GmbH in August.
According to the study by South Harz Potash, there is a mineable supply of potash salt of more than 134 million tons in the Ohm Mountains alone, raw materials for decades. Winter says a location decision should be made by the end of this year. In view of the complex approval procedures, the construction of the shafts to a depth of more than 700 meters and the plant could be expected in 2026/2027. When the study was available in August, Thuringia's Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow (left) tweeted: "There is a new perspective!"
Germany, which is considered relatively poor in raw materials, is already a major player on the potash market with the fertilizer producer KAG (Kassel), which is listed in the MDAX, and mines in the Hessian-Thuringian border area on the Werra and in Zielitz in Saxony-Anhalt. The Freiberg professor for raw material extraction, Helmut Mischo, explains: "Potash production in Germany is in world ranking four, almost ten percent of world production." Only a small part of the reported reserves has been mined to date.
Mischo from the TU Bergakademie Freiberg, but also Joachim Ragnitz from the Ifo Institute in Dresden, point out that there were market shifts in fertilizers due to the war in Ukraine. "The prices have risen massively," said Ragnitz. Besides Canada, Russia and Belarus are the largest fertilizer producers in the world, but now they are partially cut off from the market.
Mischo said that the need for fertilizers in agriculture is increasing as the world population increases. "These are two independent but overlapping processes." Ragnitz said potential investors in the southern Harz apparently assumed that fertilizer prices would remain high in the long term.
So would Südharz Kali GmbH be a "war profiteer"?Winter says no. "We acquired the mining license back in 2017." Studies rated the deposit as "extremely profitable" after the test drilling.
Winter is currently out and about a lot in northern Thuringia. She explains the project, in which, according to her, overburden and saline waste water are to be brought back into the underground cavities. Many people have "a positive, inquisitive mood," she says.After all, the major mining project is being implemented in a region with a long potash tradition.
Several potash mines were closed in northern Thuringia after reunification. In 1993, miners at the Bischofferode potash plant made headlines around the world with a month-long labor dispute and hunger strike. Irony of history: The deposit that is to be mined is right next to the Bischofferode pit, which was closed by the Treuhand and has since been flooded with saline lye and can no longer be used.
Gerhard Jüttemann, a protagonist of the labor dispute 30 years ago and chairman of the local potash association, is hoping for a positive result from the project. "We already said back then that we have the highest quality deposit in Europe." The region could benefit from the revival of potash mining. "I have a good feeling about that."
South Hartz Potash currently has the largest reserves of potash in Europe, but this needs to be confirmed with some extra drilling, and there have been some confirmatory results released to the market last Friday, which were excellent.
There has been some excellent discussion on this forum and I will not try to compete with that but generally there is significant upside to this stock as it has many positive fundamental aspects to it.
These include,
· SHP has significant reserves of potash
· The proposed mine will be situated in an existing potash mining area so labour and expertise are readily available
· Russia and Belarus current supply approximately 40% of the world market but due to current events this has been removed from the world supply
In regards to the current SP it appears that there is reasonable current support around the 16 – 17 cent level which is good, but today this was on low volume and as such you would have to assume that this is because Delphi are currently not selling. One does not know why but could be because they are waiting for it to rise a bit before resuming the dumping of their shares.
This would not surprise me as the update on Friday was excellent news and the minor movement up in the SP was a surprise to me as this confirmation should have moved it significantly more than it did.
So my assumption would be that Delphi will hold off for a few days or perhaps a week waiting for the SP to move above 20 cents then start the selling again but perhaps not so heavily, as why would you sell for 15 to 16 cents when you should easily get above 20 cents per share, now that there are confirmatory drilling results.
Having said that I believe this is currently one of the best buys on the market as there are so many positive fundamental aspects to the stock, the estimated NPV of Ohmgebirge is around $1.5 Billion with this being the smallest deposi, and there are 3 significantly larger ones plus exploration licences for other areas.
With a current market cap of $90 Million and with all the positives, significant reserves and a scoping study to be submitted to the market in a few months the fair pricing of a stock such as this is difficult, but I would suggest that a fair price for SHP now that confirmatory drilling results have been released to the market would be around 25% of the NPV of Ohmgebirge which is $375 Million and with about 530 million shares on issue this gives us a fair price of 70 cents per share.
But as this company moves forward with the proving of other larger potash fields and with the release of the scoping study in a few months this fair price could change significantly to the upside.
Potash importers brace for prolonged price rally after sanctions on Belarus