Forum Topics Property vs Shares
Hands
Added 2 years ago

We could point fingers at international money, investor exuberance, housing shortfalls etc for Australia's property prices ... but I think the govt has to take some of the flack here.

Firstly the first home buyers grant.

And now the NSW shared equity scheme.(and other similar across other states)

How does Shared Equity make it easier?

With Shared Equity, the NSW Government lightens the load of a mortgage by contributing up to 40% of the purchase price of a new home and up to 30% towards an existing house. In exchange, the Government holds an equity share in the property – but the home is yours. (Value of home purchased up to $950k in Syd metro)

 

Are there other advantages?

Yes. As well as allowing participants to pay a deposit of just 2%, Shared Equity means lower repayments on a smaller loan amount, and no need for expensive lender insurance. You won’t pay interest or rent on the Government’s equity share, either.

 

Who's eligible to apply?

  • singles aged 50 and over
  • single parents of a dependent child
  • first home buyer key workers employed as:
  • police officers
  • paramedics, registered nurses and midwives
  • teachers and early childhood educators.

Single applicants must earn less than $93,200 and joint applicants must have a combined income of less than $124,200.


So I think the CBA home deposit scheme could be a direct result to compete with the two banks who have been given the task of vetting/issuing these subsidised mortgages. Bendigo and Unity banks.

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Strawman
Added 2 years ago

I agree @Hands

Some very poor policy choices over many years, and different parties, are a big part of the issue.

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Strawman
Added 2 years ago

What could possible go wrong?

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Link to full article here


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thunderhead
Added 2 years ago

More than happy for them to pick up the tab (as long as I don't have to pay it back to them!).

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Strawman
Added 2 years ago

Roger says prices are going up? Ok, now I'm really bearish! :)

fwiw i think the supply/demand argument is overly simplistic. Of course, whenever demand remains high, and supply is limited, that will be a very supportive of prices. It's difficult to argue against that -- all else being equal.

BUT that doesn't underpin a given rate of return and there are very real affordability factors at play. At 6.5%pa variable rate, people simply can't afford as much as they could at 3%. At the margins, much fewer people can afford to continue bidding prices up -- regardless of how much demand there is for a house.

Indeed, demand is a function of price. Another core tenet of economics that Roger seems to have forgotten.

Imagine if you tried to sell you house for 5x the current suburb average. I bet there'd be virtually no demand for it at that price. Likewise, if you offered it at half the price, buyers would be lined up down the street!

Australia is a great place to live, and there will always be demand for quality housing in desirable locations. But does that mean that prices must always "double every 7 years"? Does that mean that prices will never drop?

Credit, more than anything, is what has driven prices. And credit is contracting. For now, at least.

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Valueinvestor0909
Added 2 years ago

Ha Ha, I knew this blog would create @Strawman's response.

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Strawman
Added 2 years ago

Like a rat to cheese @Valueinvestor0909 :)

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edgescape
Added 2 years ago

Also exacerbated by migration and doesn't help when overseas investors possibly can source cash at lower interest rates. But that's just imho.

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thunderhead
Added 2 years ago

It's amazing how well prices have held up, and in quite a few areas (at least in Sydney) they are already at or near pandemic highs after a brief slump in 2022. It beggars belief. Where are people coming up with the dough to service mortgages whose rates have moved rapidly at the fatest pace in history? I guess it's still early days, especially with the fixed to variable conversion cliff ahead, and we're yet to see the full/true impact, but I would have expected more cooling off already.

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Strawman
Added 2 years ago

Why would you ever do that @Saasquatch? ;)

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Vandelay
Added 3 years ago

Another classic on news.com.au how easy it is to make money in property @Strawman

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My favourite quote is "More impressively, plumbers Jack Gray, 23, and Harry Gray, 22, both from South Wentworthville in Sydney, have done so without help from the Bank of Mum and Dad, although they do still live at home where they pay $100 a week in board."

They never mention what the net asset value is in these articles.

Anyway, property to the moon ???? thank god for the investment law of doubling every 7 years.

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Strawman
Added 3 years ago

ugh.. the answer is always "with insane amounts of leverage".

What could possibly go wrong?

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Bustus
Added 3 years ago

.i have investments in industrial, residential property and also shares. Each investment class is a little different.

Property investment returns have been strong due to low interest rates , strong capital gains and leverage. The cash returns have generally been poor as a percentage of the property value. Capital gains have created the value The economics have now inversed with high interest rates and negative capital growth

Shares are a big investment class. Each business behind individual listed shares is different. It’s hard to compare shares as a class against property as a class.

Maybe the only way to answer this question at a high level is to compare a property ETF against a large index tracking equity ETF over a long period of time.

The average return on capital for equities should be higher than for property.









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