I've had Sims (ASX:SGM) on my research list for a while and this sort of commentary is a good reminder to actually get around to looking at them more closely. Has anyone here taken a look at Sims?

Just the cynic in me, but I reckon nuclear fusion will be old technology before Australia gets through all the political obstacles to build a solar farm that large, and then export the power, all while keeping it economically viable for Sun Cable.

A nuclear fusion plant would still need copper cables to distribute power. You don't need to pick winners in either electricity generation or battery technology - any significant shift to decarbonisation is going to need a lot of copper. Even "wireless" charging uses a lot of copper in the induction coils, more than a simple cable.

@PinchOfSalt yep. That’s the copper theory I just can’t go past! Unless we can figure out a way to transmit power vibrationally through a serious of harmonic amplifiers (you know, how they built the pyramids!) ;)

Electricity can be sent via microwave/infrared.

Thats how orbital solar will work.

Huge loss rate, but not an issue if the source is renewable.

The copper cable to singapore goss is spicy though!!

@reddogaustin

can you send links? Not heard of this as a prospect?

thx and HNY

Hi @pinchofsalt- do you have any favorite copper miners that you follow /are invested in?

@Nnyck777 not a lot of Copper in Au but I like the leverage in CYM. I've posted a straw or two on it.

SFR is mentioned in this thread but I haven't researched it.

I'm literally just listening to an interview and hearing about the projects and refurbishment of their camp sites. I think next 12 months will show how much it can grow. CFO sounds like he really wants production ASAP.

HNY @Chagsy

Links as follows:

https://theconversation.com/a-solar-power-station-in-space-heres-how-it-would-work-and-the-benefits-it-could-bring-179344

https://newatlas.com/energy/long-range-wireless-power-transmission-new-zealand-emrod/

and https://emrod.energy/

As suncable went into voluntary administration on Jan 11th, I don't think that they will need this copper.

I also can't imagine the security on running a massive cable through the ocean with global tensions.... all it needs is one well placed detonation and surely that knocks out the whole of singapore's future electrical grid?

Somehow it just puts me at a discomfort knowing this.... sure singapore isn't under attack and in the ideal world it may be an eco friendly option, but the cynic in me still thinks having a pipeline that can't be safeguarded 100% and such critical infrastructure.....

interesting point @SaberX

I suspect that the world is changing its viewpoint to match yours:

a single, though cheap supply point, may not be in a company's or country's best interest.

Supply chains are going to alter to include geopolitical risk

Energy supply certainty will replace just value. Actually, Control C/Control V for pretty much every strategic asset: chips, arms, communications, rare earths, Champagne etc

A counter argument (to Suncable's risks) would run that Australia is exactly the partner you want to use for your energy supply. A single supply cable is nothing new (oil and gas pipelines, internet cables etc), the duplication in supply is the most important point.

Interestingly, most people seem to accept that this is a good idea (reliable, geopolitically stable suppliers, with a bit of duplication of supply lines to get you through tough times) but no one really seems to be talking about the cost of such moves. And no western governments have the money to do this without debt.

This will be a profoundly inflationary change to the current BAU for the global order. Australia is likely to be net a beneficiary for a variety of reasons, but authorities that suggest we are headed back to the deflationary times that have existed for the last 30 years, powered by globalisation, are likely to be disappointed. As per previous posts, my base case is for 4-5% inflation with appropriate cash rates. This will have profound effects for the risk free rate of return: in bank deposits, government bonds, and subsequently the valuation of all other assets, including equities. Particularly growth stocks (which is what we are mostly pontificating about on strawman).

We are nowhere near working through this yet.

Hi @Chagsy concur - the world's either started to change its viewpoint or is well on its way.

If Russia/Ukraine has taught us one thing, and CHina's boldness, is that globalisation is great but being held at gunpoint economically and situationally isn't ideal. The days I believe of single vulnerable points supply chain wise: both physically from this cable pov, and in terms of industry (e.g. battery minerals and processing mainly being done in CHina) i believe is on the way out.

The US Inflation Reduction act seems a pointed way of subsidising bringing industry home. TO be honest I'd be happy to see diversiification for the sake of diversification into other SE Asian nations: India, Vietnam ,Philippines etc. being long overdue for some economic uplift. IIt also stops power being over concentrated in places like China who can then hold the world to ransom.

I do agree Australia in terms of Suncable's risks, is geopolitically strong. But given how expensive and time consuming laying said cable is, having just one cable and the ability to blow/knock it out certainly at deep water seems far less fixable than having alternative energy infrastructure in place in Singapore.

I do think as you mentioned in your closing comments that inflation is here to stay if we are to do away with globalisation in cheap economic production centres like China, as we seek to prioritise the security (and thereby inflation) thatt comes with moving manufacturing and supply lines out of places like China.

I think Australia has a lifetime opportunity to get not just battery minerals out of the ground, but the likes of Min res trying to bring processing plants and downstream capabilities to Australia is far more valuable. Currently they cite it isn't economical, but I believe the "build it and they will come' approach will hold true. Just like EVs were too expensive initially, start the downstream processing capabilities here and no doubt it will become more economical. ALso insulates us, with abundant sun we should become more self sufficient should war and supply constraints hit, as we can always go solar, utilise inhouse made battery tech etc.A bit of tin hat ....but you just never know these days.

We're disconnecting all the gas lines to our place because we have installed a great solar array and hoping to have an EV to back-charge in the next 24 months. There should be plenty of copper piping going off to the recycling facility!!

Yeh I imagine the truth is somewhere in between. For the price to do well we only need the narrative to take hold in any case - looking at lithium etc.

I bought some SFR IRL and a small positon on SM as don't usually do miners.

I do read Damien's stuff every now and then but they seem to be perpetual bears on most things and not the best with that track record.

I thought I'd try and dig up what I can given the long term thesis really centres on EVs - there seems to be so wildly different estimates. This one soruces the IEA which Damien quotes saying it was only 1.5x but they say well over that in their estimate.

I think some of the discrepancy is some are putting in the cost of charging stations as well in the calculation.

A6192_ElectricVehicles-Infographic.pdf (copper.org)

Of course this is by the Copper Development Association so just a bit of bias.

Another source from Reddit - According to a study by Argonne National Laboratory, 1.15% of an EV (by curb weight) is made of copper (this is for the whole vehicle, not just the motor, and most copper will be in the battery wiring - extruded copper).

A Tesla Model-Y weights 4,416 pounds, so it should have about 66.25 pounds of copper in it.

This would put it about 1.5x at the top end of the conventional car using the above.

I guess the other part of the debate is the supply side where there is degrading quality.

In any case probably more confused than ever about what the true story is.

The copper price jumped on Friday as rumors swirled about China loosening its strict covid-19 measures.

Copper enjoyed one of its best trading days in years surging 7.9% in New York to exchange hands for $3.697 per pound ($8,150 a tonne) in midday trade, a 10-week high for the December Comex contract.

Copper price back above $8,000 on China reopening hopes - MINING.COM

Looks like Global X (previously ETFS securities) is looking to launch a new low cost physcially backed GOLD ETF as wll as a Copper Miners ETF shortly.

Invest in one of the world’s most versatile commodities, copper, through the Global X Copper Miners ETF (ASX: WIRE).

Copper has been a cornerstone of social and technological innovation for more than 10,000 years. It remains a vital input for numerous industries and is set to continue as a key commodity well into the future, thanks to its properties as an electricity and heat conductor, and resistance to corrosion.

Our new fund WIRE will provide access to a global basket of copper miners which stand to benefit from being a key part of the value chain facilitating global growth in major areas of innovation such as technology, infrastructure and clean energy. 

I feel like all the paint colours in the world have now been named and the people who had those jobs shifted to work for ETF companies :'D

Anything that's hot and they can flog to get FUM quickly.

Damien Klassen is also part of Macrobusiness.

I cancelled my membership years ago because they don't teach you anything on investing or looking for something that is under the radar or undervalued.

They only post macro views and views on govt policy rather than showing where you can keep your money "safe" or give a few investment ideas. I can get my macro views anywhere for free from twitter, zerohedge, tradingeconomics etc.Why do I need to pay for that?

If you listened to the views on commodities and shares in various sectors, you'll miss out on the upside on all the listed explorers that have made significant discoveries or all the corporate activity that is currently happening in the commodity space. They even get where the main indexes are heading wrong.

Have to add, I also made the mistake about listening to them about IGO when they keep saying it should be down more because Gold prices are going down.

In the past they used to be good and even put out some of the sell side research reports from the Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.

yup @Mujo

asx:wire is out, up 10% in the last month, 17% since inception

main holdings:

copper itself is up a fair bit in the last few months

Thanks@Chagsy! I think it is a multiyear theme and one I plan on following, good to know there's an easy ETF to play the basket approach.