Forum Topics SOM and RMD
Seasoning
2 years ago

I know the answer is probably just 'the market doing what the market does', but I noticed these two sleep apnea companies take a hit today in price and was wondering if there's been some breakthrough in sleep apnea or something? I couldn't find anything in the news.

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mikebrisy
2 years ago

I don't follow $SOM but I hold $RMD in RL. It's been volatile throughout this year in both directions with swings of +/- 10% over periods of 1-2 weeks.

I am not aware of anything company-specific in recent days beyond its results, which were OK but reinforce the key issue that supply chain constraints are preventing $RMD from taking full advantage of its major competitor's now long-running product recall saga. Some customers are waiting weeks and months to get the high-end machines and some connected models have been down-graded to card-to-cloud from fully-connected devices. Still, Phillips troubles and high demand mean that they have pricing power which is providing some mitigation to the problems.

Any newsflow as to what is going on with Phillips or the chip supply chain issues tends to have a read-across to $RMD. Again, not aware of anything specific in the last day or two.

For what its worth, overall broker vals didn't change much on the last report - and $RMD has a lot of coverage, including in the US.

In addition, it is on a pretty high P/E, so these stocks tend to get knocked around a lot. (Most of my big cap high P/E stocks have been knocked around today as part of general market volatility.)

Personally, I am looking through all the noise. Phillips problems has done significant brand damage to their major competitor, the supply chain issues will ease over time, and the area is generally under-diagnosed with COVID only adding to bigger array of health conditions driving growth in the under-lying conditions.

Disc: Held in RL (2.5%)

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Seasoning
2 years ago

So I got the answer - Apnimed has announced a new drug to treat Obstructive Sleep Apnea - it could be a threat to both companies.


https://apnimed.com/apnimed-announces-positive-topline-results-for-mariposa-trial-of-ad109/


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jayjayjayjay
2 years ago

@Seasoning i saw this and thought it may also be the reason for the sell off but these results came out 2-3 weeks ago. It’s not necessarily new information. It’s also phase 2 trial so it’s still extremely early days. I’m sceptical about how a drug can improve sleep apnoea but I won’t get into that. It will take years to get into the market but if it does I would think many would take a medication over having to handle a machine or device each night. I think sleep apnoea is going to become a bigger problem in years to come with obesity a large link to the diagnosis which is only trending up.

resmed have some serious tailwinds and I really like what SOM are doing with a more simplistic and less evasive device.

regardless if the sell off on RMD and SOM is for the information you provided which is the only thing I could find also I see it more of a opportunity then anything else to. Plus dentists (who I believe prescribe SOM devices, could be wrong) are not going to be prescribing medication so perhaps it impacts them less than say RMD if it even does.

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nerdag
2 years ago

@jayjayjayjay, the Apnimed solution selectively targets parts of the brain that control airway muscle tone.

https://apnimed.com/our-science/

Good idea in theory, who knows if the relevant receptors in the brainstem can be selectively targeted in such a way, and who knows if it will be successful for OSA.

One thing is for sure, if there is one successful drug candidate, there will be more in the pipeline, and Resmed and Fisher Paykel Healthcare will be sitting ducks.

The other thing that could kill the market for RMD and FPH will be the holy grail of a reliable pharmacological treatment for obesity. Again, who knows when/if that will ever be available, but given the potential market, it is definitely an area of interest to big pharma.

Disc: RMD and FPH not held.


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Timocracy
2 years ago

Ok I see one part of the article that I want to highlight in my own echo chamber.

af4f984ceef7ec35c11448bd3f4efa05b32028.png

Basically half of the participants got good results. There seems to be a bit of fluffery in displaying all those percentages when displayed in a single sentence together. Deliberate or not, a chart or diagram would show that there is a lot more room to go.

I'll let that not influence my thinking though, this is still a risk to SOM.


The one thing to consider here is that from a year's worth of reading, this whole thing of a drug treatment eliminating the business model isn't really something I have seen much talk on when in reality it is a large existential threat which now seems so obvious in hindsight. Oh, 20/20.

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mikebrisy
2 years ago

I'm kinda with @jayjayjayjay - there is someway to go.

I hedge my investment in this market (which overall I believe is very attractive) with holdings in both $RMD (2.7% RL) and $FPH (2.2%). $FPH is interesting because of its innovation focus around all the things you can do with air in the clinical setting, and they have a strong innovation pipeline. $FPH are attractive at the moment given the SP is knocked down due to cycling "10 years - in 2" super COVID results while also having supply chain challenges. They are much more than CPAP.

Still, its early days on the pharmacological side, and I think for me the tailwinds carry the day for now.

Disc; Hold $RMD and $FPH in RL.

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BoredSaint
2 years ago

For people interested in this space (Sleep Apnoea, airway etc). I'd check out a device called Myobrace (private company) which is designed to prevent apnoea issues by treating children.

Straight Teeth Without Braces | Myobrace

As a dentist, this is a bit of a grey area as obviously we deal with issues in the mouth however apnoea sort of extends beyond the mouth into the airway. This device is marketed towards dentists to offer their patients (I assume similar to SOM although I haven't done too much reading into that). I do think that it will play a role towards prevention of sleep apnoea.

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