Forum Topics MME MME General Discussion
loshell
Added 2 years ago

[Disc: Accumulating post cap raise]

@thunderhead I've been following MME for a while and I don't think I agree with the sentiment in your recent straw:

Whatever brownie points management scored with investors (myself included) in scaling up the business and communicating well with shareholders has been more than undone by their terrible recent decisions, chiefly the ill-designed, highly dilutive capital raising conducted at 50c with the market price languishing well beneath immediately after the announcement. The slide has continued unabated since.

In order to continue growing the business they had to raise equity to underwrite further access to funding. The share price at the time they needed to execute this is unfortunate but outside their control, and I imagine they had to balance not waiting too long and potentially stalling the business, against pulling the trigger too early with sufficient headroom in existing facilities which would equally raise eyebrows i.e. seems a damned if you do damned if you don't kinda situation to me. There was probably also some desire to lock in some interest rate certainty to help manage their product margins.

There are genuine macro concerns driving sentiment and further suppressing the share price, but to my mind the sell off is way overdone given the various business KPIs. Time will tell, but given my risk tolerance I think at these levels the upside looks attractive.

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Timocracy
Added 2 years ago

@loshell I'm halfway between you and @thunderhead on this one. Upside does look good especially if they just keep on keeping on but the capital management seems poor at this stage. They should have been looking to raise while they had 12 months of solid SP between $1.50 and $2.00. I even made some short term money on those support levels.

I sold the rest of my holding when that cap raise was announced because I can't see there being a catalyst in the next year or 18 months. Plenty of time to get back in even if I miss the first 20% upside from here. If I'm wrong about that I'll eat my shoe.

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loshell
Added 2 years ago

To me, feels a bit like they're being judged with the benefit of hindsight and without detailed knowledge of what the triggers/conditions for needing more capital are exactly e.g. they may have needed to show increasing scale in the autopay business, and/or increasing median credit score, and/or increasing percentage of secured loans before they could go to lenders to begin negotiating favourable terms for additional facilities.

It's also entirely possible I'm being way too naive/forgiving and I'll be eating *my* shoes because I can't afford to buy food after making a terrible investment decision... wait a second... MME will loan me money secured against my car to buy food so all good actually haha :D

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