@Invmum A forum is probably the best place for discussion.
My valuation is very "wet finger in the air" but based on apparent safety and efficacy of early trials and the market size.
Cap raise at 14c was a discount to market then, and value has increased with subsequent positive trial results and trial progress.
Alzheimer's is badly underserved and billions has been spent barking up the wrong alley. ACW is not targetting amyloid plaques. Cortisol could be the right answer or a treatable factor for AZ and/or depression.
I'd love to calculate the NPV of a successful outcome less costs x % chance of success, but have trouble even getting the right order of magnitude.
Great thanks for your response.
I found some intel online stating the global TAM for drug sales in 2029 was expected to reach $10bn, of which the USA makes up about 50%. This is the same point I have assumed ACW reaches commercialisation. Thumb suck on 10% penetration as a starting point. Also assumed 80% GM (need to verify) and $20m o/heads (need to verify)
I used this table below to determine chance of success.... pretty low still at this stage - about 6%
Gets me a risk adjusted NPV of 24c. Less 6c dilution if they raise $50m
