Saw the same show and enjoyed it. Love the idea of a boiled lollies to chocolates story (although true rags to riches is less about a riches-injection). Saw the same Catapult insignia - and inevitably do on many sports I watch. I take a slightly contrary view though and wonder about exactly how much Catapult signage I need to see before it gets reflected in their results. It's the one Strawman meeting I haven't watched yet so no doubt it was asked and maybe there's some revelatory answer that will convince me why they deserve investment, but so far the physical adoption of Catapult has significantly run ahead of the financial results and at some point they run out of runway.

Raymond Jang wrote an excellent article for A Rich Life last year in regards to their competition, which I recommend as a read (Raymond was a shareholder at the time).

[Not held]

Thanks @Noddy74 always love your insight

I take a view very similar to @Noddy74. Straight up, I am not a holder, but this is mainly the reason why. CAT is very popular amongst elite teams -- you only have to watch a few EPL games and you will see a good portion of the clubs wearing CAT gear. This has always worried me with them, how much runway do they have left when they are used by elite sporting clubs across the world? Their financials are not reflective of them being a world leader in their field. If not now, then when? And that last question is the very reason CAT isn't even on a watchlist for me. Too hard basket.

The question of runway is a good one. Catapult would probably argue that it's decent. From their past presentations they have said:

• The market itself will grow. Wearables and analytics have been growing at high rates since it started, and is expected to reach >$16b in size by 2026
• Adoption. They currently have about 1/3 of the available market -- 3600 teams out of a TAM of 20,000 . (the technology is applicable to a wide variety of professional sports that currently have low penetration). I do take this estimate (from Catapult) with a grain of salt -- there'd be a lot of small, less well funded teams at the tail end. Still, there's certainly more teams to onboard.
• They are the market leader, by a decent margin (5x the size of nearest competitor in wearables). That gives advantages in terms of data, and network effects
• Cross-sell. Only 10% or so of their customers use more than one solution. And they are showing some good upsell rates.

So for me, I've never been worried about the potential runway. And, excluding covid, they have always maintained a decent clip of customer growth.

For me the concern is whether Catapult can capture this opportunity profitably and internally fund growth while delivering high ROIC. That's the open question...And the fact that shares are trading at just 1.6x ACV says to me that the market remains sceptical. But, I suppose, there in lies the opportunity if you think they can eventually deliver attractive net margins.

Hayden (CFO) told us recently that he felt 17% net margins were possible at scale, but I tend to think the market could re-rate as soon as (or if) they hit sustainable positive FCF while still delivering strong top-line growth.

At the same time, any further delay to profitability -- or, god forbid, another cap raise -- will not be received well.

It's just taking time to right the wrongs from the previous management team, but I think the signs have so far been encouraging and management is hyper-aware of what shareholders are looking for.

Patience will be required (I just hope i'm not confusing that with stubbornness!)