Prophecy International Holdings Limited

ASX:PRO

Prophecy International Holdings Limited

ASX:PRO
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$0.900 (0%)
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#22
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15
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44
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Reports (4) My Report Forum Investors
Forum Topics PRO PRO PRO General Discussion
Wini
7 months ago

@Strawman given comments on the Baby Giants pod about not knowing PRO well, may be an idea to see if Brad wants to come and present? Happy to intro and sell the good oil about this online private investment club.

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Strawman
7 months ago

You bet @Wini

My ill-prepared/ ignorant commentary definitely needs a counterpoint..

If you have a connection, an intro would be great!

11
Wini
9 months ago

Penned a blog on PRO:

https://www.merewethercapital.com.au/blog/are-profits-foretold-in-this-prophecy/

Not a perfect business but a better one than the share price implies.

33
Strawman
9 months ago

Solid write-up @Wini

Definitely a difficult transition going from licensing to subscription, but it's usually the better move long term.

I'll see if I can get the Prophecy team to come chat with us.


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Solvetheriddle
9 months ago

@Wini good write up Luke, could have saved me listening to the PRO show and tell today. actually the two pieces together significantly raised my Pro knowledge. thanks

13
Noddy74
9 months ago

"Solid" write-up...that's a backhanded compliment if I ever heard one.

Luke, I thought it was excellent. I'm not saying Andrew was underwhelmed but....

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Strawman
9 months ago

Ha!

Where I'm from @Noddy74, "solid" is nothing to sneeze at!

Maybe time to update my lingo.. what are the cool kids saying these days? Lit? Gucci?

15
Wini
one year ago

@Noddy74 You could not have summed up my reaction better!

"First half highlights for Prophecy were released today and they were ok-ish, provided you stood back from the screen, squinted really hard and didn't compare them too closely to your modelled results."

You are right cash is the big concern, there is a 1H/2H split given they have annual invoices for the large eMite customers in the 2H but burning $3m is much more than I expected. I would think there are probably some one-offs in there (in-housing the Philippines dev team, larger than normal FY22 STI cash bonuses) but still it was a shock.

ARR growth remains solid, other metrics still messy from the Snare transition from licensing to subscription.

26
jayjayjayjay
one year ago

hey @Wini

Interested to know why you preference PRO over say DSE.

I know they are different businesses and PRO have other interesting aspects to the business but given they both are in the cyber security sector I am sure you have looked over each. Perhaps you have never compared the two and if so please ignore but if you have compared would love to know why you preference PRO. Any insights would be appreciated. Would love to hear others peoples thoughts if they have compared.

interestingly enough both are well liked by an investment management fund Topline Capital which have made a sizeable position in both companies. I note more recently they have been increasing their stake in DSE and not so much PRO.

appreciate comments in advance.

12
Wini
one year ago

Hey @jayjayjayjay,

I probably haven't looked at PRO and DSE as a comparison to each other, they both have the cyber security theme though my interest in PRO is much more in the eMite contact centre analytics than the Snare cybersecurity product.

The shortest answer to your question is probably just valuation, not the biggest fan of ARR but even using that basic metric DSE trades on over 6x while PRO is just over 2x. Maybe there is a fair argument DSE deserves a higher one given it has maintained it's strong FY22 through 1H23 while PRO has slowed down (plus PRO ARR is reliant on lumpier deals, growth isn't as smooth).

But I like DSE (and so does Topline given how hard they have recently been buying!) but I haven't quite got my head around the product/industry to justify the valuation. Some very sharp investors I know own it though, I suspect shareholders do pretty well from here.

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