Forum Topics Weebit Nano
Byrnesty
one year ago

As a holder of WBT I am considering whether WBT has run too hard and too fast over recent months. SP has risen from $2.02 on 11/10/22 to $6.26 on 21/2/23 (3 months >200% increase).

Is the SP run due to hype or can it be justified?

On the positive side:

WBT advised in the last 4C that qualification is expected in the first half of CY23 enabling mass production and that discussions and technical evaluations are underway with several Tier 1 Fabs and customers.

WBT expect to have the first large Fab agreement signed by middle of the year. First revenues are expected during 2023.

Alan Kohler recently interviewed Coby Hanoch for the Eureka Report. Coby made a number of references to and talks openly about being taken over by a large player in the semiconductor industry:

“the market is full of these examples where the big guys have tried to develop these technologies, but at the end the just go and look for the best technology that smaller companies developed and try to take them”

And also:

“once we start selling, I won’t be surprised if there will be some of the big guys who come and want to take this technology”

I wonder whether there are already some discussions occurring in the background.


On the negative side:

There is currently no revenue!

Coby openly admits that $40M+ current cash will not be enough to reach commercialisation and additional capital will be required.

There are ReRam competitors (TSMC, Panasonic, eMemory, 4DS plus a few that have dropped off Coby’s radar) although WBT claim to be the leading independent player. There are also competing technologies in this space  (MRAM). MRAM was first to market and has traction at this time but has manufacturing and cost challenges.


My thoughts are that WBT is at least 2 years from significant revenue and profitability and the SP will be highly volatile in the interim. As WBT “become the leading independent player” it appears probable that they will be taken over by a larger semiconductor multinational player.

I would not be surprised to see the SP back in the $2 to $3 range over the next 2 years. My head tells me to trim but I will probably sit on my hands.

Any thoughts?

16
Timocracy
one year ago

I'm an early seller of WBT. I took the approach of "buy to hold" and then one day I had a price alert triggered and it was up something stupid like 40% in a day. Took about 18 months to reach that high again (recently) so up until now I was quite happy with a tidy profit in an unexpectedly short period of time. I do like what they are doing and have continued to follow the story but currently have higher conviction on other ideas. I also am keeping an eye out for what I expect to be a bit of turmoil if:

1) General "risk/off" from the wider market has a brief pause in current elation (triggered by who knows what, recession, interest rates, another black swan) in which case something like this has a much greater chance of being sold off way too far and presents a better opportunity

2) A cap raise that could significantly dilute holders and (imo) offer prices below whatever the raise price is in the following weeks from such an event

3) A missed target, a question from the ASX about releasing market sensitive information, the hype that drops off when people who bought above $6 realise it's unlikely to go to $10 in the next 3 months for any reason other than crowd bullishness and start to pull out cash to fund other speculative ventures.


All that leaves me in a position where I would like to take another look under $3 but not losing sleep if I miss out on the action from this one (at least, for 2023.)

18
Rocket6
one year ago

@Byrnesty there has definitely been some interest in WBT the last month – the share price is up 60% on no real news. Go back six months and the increase has been over 200%. Heck, even since you’ve posted this a week ago, it is up 30% in that time!

Valuation wise, it doesn’t make a great deal of sense. It now has a market cap of approximately 1.4b, taking it into the ASX 300, but is yet to make any revenue. Further, no first tier agreements have been signed since the commercial agreement with SkyWater last year. That said, WBT has enormous potential should it continue to execute and some have suggested will be a handsome takeover target due to their IP.

I don’t want to reduce my holding, despite the share price seemingly appearing lofty and frankly ridiculous. I do not own this to make a quick buck -- I want to own it in 5-10 years when I think we could see some really impressive scaling, with revenue in the billions. But it is VERY tempting to take some off the table noting the run its had and the likelihood we will be provided with a more attractive opportunity to buy back in.

Controversial opinion, I would actually like to see management raise some cash with the share price at this level. They don't have enough to get them through to profitability so they will need to bring in some cash at some point. What better time then now?

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Byrnesty
one year ago

@Rocket6 to act or not act on the sp movement is definitely a conundrum.

I can see the long term potential in WBT and fully intended to stay the journey.

To see the sp get caught in speculative hype is almost annoying. @Strawman pointed out on the recent baby giants podcast that WBT is now valued at >1xTAM in 2027. This is ridiculous.

Having ridden the BRN train all the way up the mountain and back down I have learned my lesson and sold out of WBT. I have added it back onto my watchlist.

It will be difficult to continue watching the sp rise after I sold out....but such is life.

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