Forum Topics GNP GNP General
Noddy74
Added 2 years ago

Thanks for posting the analyst report @Rick

I saw the projections in TIKR but it doesn't provide the name of the company giving the analysis, nor the commentary, so your posting fills in that gap. Bell Potter are more bearish than me on FY23 total business but think costs will be lower and the net of that is that we come to similar figures from EBITDA down. Ironically if they delivered per the BP estimate I would almost consider my thesis broken - even though they're delivering similar earnings and cash to my estimate and have an almost identical base case valuation. It would be a signal to me that the order book and pipeline disclosures really aren't helpful in analysing this business and thus better for me to avoid this one all together. We'll see come the full year results.

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Rick
Added 2 years ago

I don’t see any rush to buy into GenusPlus @Noddy74. If the FY23 NPAT turns out to be in line with Bell Potter’s forecast I think the share price, (currently trading on 15.5x forecast FY23 earnings) is likely to take a further hit on the results announcement.

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Noddy74
Added 2 years ago

Yeah agreed, I was largely putting some thoughts out there to make myself accountable to them when they do report. Thesis creep protection of sorts.

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