Forum Topics PPE PPE General Discussion
Saiton
Added 2 years ago

My experience with TMF, they dont care when you get in on their recommendations even if it is at the top of their cycles (Thats their biggest mistake). SP used the example of Domino's pizza that he should have bought and stayed in at the time as it just keeps on going. Yes it did at the time however look at it now.

Sorry but when something is 50+ P/E, be carefull, watch the cycles and at some stage it will reverse. Dont be over the top greedy.TMF recommended many stocks very high in there cycles. They recommended you buy all their stocks in the event that it only takes 1 to explode (at some stage in its life) to whip out the losses of the others. Wow very broard statement. That may be the case but good luck waiting for it. Also they say you should be 100% invested in the market leaving no surplus cash ever to invest. The theory here is statistically speaking humans find it hard to press buy again after taking a profit or a losss hence will probably miss the next up cycle (another words should have stayed invested and it woud come back again at some stage. Again so broard. I do not agree with their investment thesis at all. Was a premium memeber for a year and was bombarded with emails that just back up my emails to no end. Many stocks recommended across their different services multiple times.

I now hold many -90% positions my biggest being Kogan as SP recommended the crap out of it as it fell after the big fortunes it made through the 1st year of covid. I know Covid was a tricky one to navigate however he really pushed that one. I was a sucker and beleived in his conviction (blindly). He refernced the stock as a stars so much in TMF podcast I would bet many fell for it. I have to say It was Andrew that was the contrarian to SP thoughts on Kogan. Bugger, listened to the hype master to much when should have payed attention to @Strawman (he was co hosting). I will be digging that positioon out for years to come. I have now learnt to trust myself (mostly). TMF never again.

19

Timocracy
Added 2 years ago

The only thing that could have made Dubber at $3.50 a better recommendation is if someone from TMF came to my house and started putting $50 notes into a shredder...

17

Seasoning
Added 2 years ago

That sucks. Yeah I think the lesson from those TMF recommendations, and from other recommendations from services is that you still need to really go over the investment ideas as best you can and try to value you them yourself.

Speaking as someone who has had access to both TMF and Intelligent investor, I very much prefer the intelligent investor absolute ranges of buy/hold/sell - I feel like its intentionally obscured from TMF. Still, even with Intelligent investor I try to do my own valuations and understand their assumptions for growth etc.

For TMF I think I had whatever their small cap one was called and their share advisor one, but ultimately I think the majority of the companies I've ended up with are covered by Intelligent investor with better detail and a specific buy/hold/sell.

My advice to anyone using any service, look through their history - its available in most of them. Try to see what they got wrong and understand why. I think with TMF you pretty much nailed it - I feel like valuation or margin of safety doesn't seem to play a huge part but maybe I'm wrong?


16
Rick
Added 2 years ago

A share advisor I respect a lot has called Peoplein a BUY this month. It wouldn’t be ethical of me to share their thesis here. However, the subscription is dirt cheap and you might be a FOOL not to take notice of some of the monthly recommendations. :)

There is a free thesis and valuation straw here on Strawman (warning, you only get what you pay for! :)). While I see some risks of higher unemployment reducing earnings for labour hire companies, Peoplein is well worth a look at the current price.

Disc: Held IRL (2%)

17

Solvetheriddle
Added 2 years ago

@Rick i hope you not talking about the TMF. i was a subscriber and asked for my money back. i have, imo, realistic hit rate expectation from advisers, but their recommendations have been absolutely atrocious. i realise i have vented about this before, but they recommended about every disaster over the last two years. incredible ( i invested in none of them but thats not the point). i did notice they did start to recommend less risky, more developed businesses as the bear market ravaged their former calls....too little too late, imo. i also note their calls still see a pop in the share price so i can only conclude there are financial masochists lol, i can lose $ just as easily without their help :)

19

Bear77
Added 2 years ago

Hey @Solvetheriddle my first impression of your comment there was: Harsh but Fair, however on reflection I do think (as a former TMF subscriber myself) that their various services had reasonably diverse hit/miss rates. For instance, I reckon Claude Walker did pretty well there when he was the lead PM for their Hidden Gems service. Also, I did hear good things about Pro, especially when Joe Magyer was running it. I also agree with you that it's a lot easier to recommend winners in a bull market where a rising tide tends to lift most boats (except the ones with serious holes in them), however the receding tide during a bear market (or a downtrending market) will often expose those who are swimming naked - to mix, match, and totally stuff up a couple of different metaphors. I, like you, have no time for TMF at this point, but I found MFDI useful back when Andrew (@Strawman ) was running it, and I still subscribe to Claude Walker's "A Rich Life" as have always admired Claude's honesty and conviction (and intellect). Just thought I'd inject a tiny amount of balance into this conversation.

That said, I personally have no time for Scott Phillips - he tends to be arrogant, far too sure of himself most of the time, and often very wrong. And he won't own up to his own mistakes, usually blaming the market or conditions or black swan events on his terrible calls - and there have been a number of those I agree.

20

Rick
Added 2 years ago

Mmm interesting @Solvetheriddle and @Bear77. Yes it was The Motley Fool. I have only just subscribed on one of their super deals. I think it’s a bit like Nick Scali…there’s always a sale on!

i thought I’d give them a try for 12 months for a few investment ideas. Mind you I intend to do my own research on each recommendation.

17

Solvetheriddle
Added 2 years ago

@Bear77 yes i agree, CW JM AP obviously not there over the last few years. I also agree with your SP comments, some people I know that know him personally say he is a good bloke, that may be so, but in relation to commentary your comments are fair. also TME have a long product list, some may be better than others.

11

Solvetheriddle
Added 2 years ago

@Rick good luck. do your own DD, as always, no short cuts here..... im still learning that lesson :(

12

Saiton
Added 2 years ago

Wow couldnt agree more with your last staement there @Bear77. He is a very pleasant guy, that means nothing in this business.

6