Thanks @Remorhaz While we can all come up with endless different scenarios, what I like about this research is that it captures why I hold $ALC. At a SP of c. $0.10, a range of outcomes spanning $0.07 to $0.36 is a very good risk-reward profile. (Of course, the risk-reward profile when I acquired at $0.24 wasn't so sweet, but there is no point anchoring on the past.)

As an observation, I'm surprised they don't just lump NZ in with ANZ. Its now one integrated market about the (population) size of QLD, so it seems odd to have broken it out in the different scenarios.