Jumbo's latest slide deck shows that there have been only 11 large jackpots (>$15m) so far in the second half (through to the end of April), and with a lower aggregate size. If you pro-rata the current half, the total aggregate jackpot size comes in at around half the previous second half.

We could see some bigger jackpots in the remaining couple of months (and statistically you'd probably expect that), but given where we are, and how highly ticket sales correlate with jackpot size, it'll be hard to get a good comp for the current half revenue wise.

Of course, this is just the nature of the industry and doesn't hold much relevance to business execution, but it is something to be mindful of.

Cost growth is expected to be in the range of 16-18% as the company continues to invest, but this is down from the previous year's 33% lift, and the underlying operating margin is now expected to come in at the higher end of the original guidance range of 48-50%.

Powerball (which accounts for over half their TTV) is increasing the ticket price by 10c, the first price increase in 5 years. But Jumbo is adding a further 10c to ticket prices. Given the price rise should also lead to more frequent large jackpots, it *should* be a net positive for Jumbo. In fact, on a pro-forma basis, this is expected to drive operating margins from 44% to around 50% from Fy22 to FY23

One small point, the company still has a buy back allotment of $25m, which only 10% or so has been used at an average price of $12.58 (current price $12.71, so maybe that's an area you could see at least some support.

All told, this business is a bit of a cash cow with good secular tailwinds and one that (at least historically) has proven to be very recession proof.

Disc. Held