Pinned valuation:
Valuation is hard. At $21.60 the P/E is 92! However, forecast PBTA is $120-140 before the big contract announced. Let's ignore that since not long before EOY. A PBTA of $120-140 compares to last years ttm NPAT of about $30m. How big is the jump in profit? Depends on how much tax and amortisation they have.
I'm going to punt with $21 (just below the current share price) since surely NPAT will double from $30m to $60m bringing the P/E down to a more reasonable (but not cheap) 46. BUT there is high degree of uncertainty.
Jamie Pherous has said EPS will be 30% higher than FY19 when travel returns to normal, which will probably be FY24 ( note that his comment was before the large contract announcement). That would make EPS about $1.19 giving a PE of below 20 on forward earnings. He also said that the total business will be 75% larger which it looks like it will easily be, but they issued more shares to buy Travel and Transport so EPS growth is lower.
FY23 PBT guidance is $120 - $140M. Ist half PBT was $23M statutory or $30M underlying so 2nd half is 3-4 times bigger.
It has traded at a PE above 20 for the 5 or so years pre Covid.
I hold CTD and am not selling