Forum Topics VHT VHT History

Pinned straw:

Added 12 months ago

Report out in 10 days for them, pretty keen to get the full story, will be good to see what they put in there.

For those that want to get a lowdown on the business, my latest deep dive is on them: https://goforgrowthco.substack.com/p/volpara-vhtasx

I cover tailwinds, moat, secret sauce, competitors, risks, etc...

The US also just lowered the recommended age for breast checking to 40 years old (was 50) last week; some are lobbying for scans to be part of the recommendation. That would be another nice tailwind for them if it were approved....

mikebrisy
12 months ago

Great substack summary once again @JPPicard

On market and competition, I note the comment about $PME having breast density in their platform, and I am mindful about the "your product is my feature" challenge.

However, focusing on the USA, the medical imaging software market size is c. $3bn, with most of it still being the software of the big instrument manufacturers. $PME has sales consensus for FY23 at $120m and growing rapidly, and so one has to assume their breast density function is a very small percentage of that vs. $32m $VHT forecast sales.

With over 35% of US breast images going through $VHT software at some stage, and a vast body of peer-reviewed literature supporting it, as well as several review studies showing that it is the leading product from a software perspective (sorry, don''t have the reference to hand but this was promoted 2-3 years ago by Ralph Higham), the questions facing $VHT are:

  1. Can it continue to add major new customers "elephants"?
  2. Can it increase ARPU, by selling more modules to existing customers?
  3. Can it improve margins, by reducing cost to serve customers,? The headcount reduction delivered has made a step change towards that.


Since Terri has been onboard, there has been tangible delivery on all three issues - Ralph didn't seem to make any progress on item 3., which is why I gave up, because it was starting to look like a "growth without profit" story.

In the FY, I don't expect any surprises, as we've had the $4Cs. The only upside from my perspective would be updates on more recent deals (if any) and a view on what FY24 is shaping up to be.

Q1FY24 has been signalled as CF negative due to staff incentive payments, so this year I am tracking Q-o-Q revenue/receipts as evidence of sustained top-line momentum (competitiveness), cashflow in Q2FY24 and Q3FY24, and ARPU in the FY result versus FY22 and at 1HFY24, and expense/sales progression by half.

Disc: Held in RL and SM

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