Forum Topics CAT CAT Full Year

Pinned straw:

Last edited 2 years ago

10 Days away from these guys releasing their full year too.

Holders, keen to get your take on what you think things will look like this year:

How large of a loss?

Where will growth land?

Wondering what the dialogue will be on cashflow positivity.

Quest Asset Partners Pty Ltd just bought some more last week.

I like this company and the story, and love sports so you got to love it, but have been quite turned off by the constant burn and constant story they promote about the insane blue bird potential.

Anyway, keen to get your thoughts lads.

Longpar5
Added 2 years ago

Looks like we will find out tonight!

The first thing I was looking for was no leaks - which judging by the vanilla trading the last few days is a tick (really a neutral, but after the farce before the last report was released I'll give it a tick - for improvement). Actually what happened last time was an interesting insight into how out of touch the insider(s) were, with what looked like insider buying prior to an announcement which actually showed devastating increases in costs and cash outflows and saw share prices tumble.

I'm hoping to see revenue growth around 20% on the PCP. I'm hoping to see costs flat or coming out, at the very least wider operating margins without increasing investing and finance outflows. I'm hoping to see that they are passing on cost increases without churn.

I'm expecting to see revenue growth 10-15% on PCP with costs increasing at a similar magnitude, blamed on inflation (which is no doubt a pressure, but they should be passing through to customers). I'm expecting to see overall cash outflows 10-15m for the half, with some further debt drawdown. And I'm expecting to see another "buying opportunity" in the shareprice. As a holder I hope I'm wrong, sorry to sound negative (....this may be a learned self-defense mechanism in the case of CAT).

For the record, I do believe in this company, the product and the relatively new management team (although sceptical of the board). I'm just not sure that enough time has passed to see it all transpire in the numbers.

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Strawman
Added 2 years ago

I'll throw in my 2c on Catapult @JPPicard , although take it with a large grain of salt.

Turn arounds rarely turn, as they say, but for my sins I still reckon there's a solid business somewhere here. Right-sizing the business and shifting revenue models is not something you do overnight, especially if you throw a pandemic into the mix. But Will & co seem to be making some progress.

As has been the case for a while, I believe the catalyst for a re-rate will need to be continued strong ACV growth, the shift to FCF +'ve and EBITDA margins heading in the right direction.

In answer to your questions, I hope to see ACV growth (in cc) to be at or around 20%. Given the 1st half loss and accelerated development, it seems likely the company will go backwards on EBITDA by a good chunk -- and, frankly, this is a company where we should really factor in the D&A. Still, excluding acquisition related expenses, and assuming some of the costs savings have flowed through, my thumb suck would be for -US$15-20m in EBITDA for the FY. Not great, but would represent a big improvement on the first half.

I'm hoping they show positive operating cash flow. It'd also be great to see the contribution margin head back towards 45% for the second half too. In fact, the whole thesis is that they can sustain top line growth and (finally) see operating margins improve significantly. The general trajectory I want to see in the medium term is something like 15% revenue growth and a move towards double digit operating margins.

I thought your recent summary was on the money.

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JPPicard
Added 2 years ago

Excellent answer mate. Nice to read a well articulated long term view.

Even more Keen to see the report now

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