Great response thank you. Wish I had your analytic approach before I bought at $1.60 a few years ago and grossly overpaid thinking growth curves would be greater than what was achieved. Hopefully you are right and growth continues 20-25% plus.

I see the partnership with google AI as a huge plus. The data base to feed machine learning algorithms is a massive advantage. This tech advance could improve VHT risk analysis and/or make them an attractive acquisition for a larger medical imaging company in the future. I will continue to sit in the red with this stock. I am impressed with Teri’s leadership so far.

I have always had the takeover thought as well but I struggle to think who it would be? Excluding private equity coming in for it, who would be the bigger fish? The obvious thought is fan favourite PME but one could argue they have been expanding into this space in their own right and may wish to continue to do so. I would love to see a takeover by PME because IRL I would massively benefit but I dont see it happening, at least in the near term.

Full disclosure I am a long time holder (translation = long time sufferer) but on for the long haul to hopefully see some upside

@Nnyck777 I’m afraid pre-profit businesses aren’t my strong suit! Every time I buy one this is what seems to happen :)

@Rick @Nnyck777 I think we are all, more often than not, victims of the fact that growing revenues is hard and spending (costs) is easy. Thus we (humans) tend to overestimate revenue projections and underestimate cost projections.

So, in general, we’ll miss more often that not when chasing firms pre-inflection point. The idea, as @Strawman has often said, is your downside is capped at 100%; but your upside can be x00%.

What’s changed, is that pre-profit companies get hit hard (fundamentally) when interest rates go up. Arguably, we are now in a more “normal” environment for stockpicking, whereas during much of 2010-2020, you could get away with just chasing revenue growth.

So, coming back to $VHT, what I am focused on are the relative rates of revenue growth and cash cost growth.

Just as an FYI from the service I can get information from we don't see any recent updated broker research report for VHT (yet). Can see older reports (e.g. from Barclay Pearce Capital, GS, Edison, RAAS, Macquarie) but they are from earlier last year (e.g. May, Mar & Jan 2022) or even older

NB: The Barclay Pearce Capital report (from 26th May last year) had VHT as an Underperform with a PT of $0.42

@Remorhaz that is interesting.

I use MarketScreener.com, which doesn’t identify the research source but publishes key min., max., and average values., and plots these over time, so you can follow trends in how analysts are responding in aggregate.

Prior to results, there were two TPs of $1.10 and $1.21. Since the results, the $1.21 has been downgraded to $1.20 and the $1.16 has been upgraded to $1.20. So "consensus" is up slightly from $1.16 to $1.20, which intuitively makes sense given an outlook for better margins offset by slower revenue growth.

Coincidentally, my Val. is $1.27, arrived at independently, although you can adjust mine by whatever you believe the FY26 p/e will be, which of course is a combination of the company fundamentals and macro factors prevailing at that time.

Further to your note, I can see from MarketScreener.Com that the $0.42 PT was removed from the dataset on 3-Jan-2023, which means they either ceased covering $VHT, stopped being accessible to MarketScreener.com, or became stale and were therefore dropped from the sample.

My conclusion of all of this, is that I think views over the next 2-3 years for $VHT are in a reasonably tight range of 2 or 3 if I include my own (or there is groupthink!), and the discount to a fundamental view is a combination of a) the current, unprofitable small-cap market discount and b) the market expecting costs to be higher and revenues to be lower (execution risk).

What I’ve written may well be utter non-sense, but that’s the narrative I’ve settled on.

My thesis rests on 1) its a proven good set of products, 2) there is ample space in the market to sell more to big accounts, 3) under Terri, they will execute and become profitable soon. I don’t think there is much doubt in 1) and 2), so it’s about tracking 3) q by q, recognising that there will be some noise from q to q.

I’m looking forward to the Strawman meeting on Friday, where I want to understand more about 1) the big customer buying process and 2) the extent to which the products compete and/or complement other imaging software.