Forum Topics XF1 XF1 ASX Announcements

Pinned straw:

Last edited 2 years ago

11/5/23 Xref Product Development Update

Well, what an annus horribilis for XF1 (or I guess more specifically, the share price). While the business definitely missed the lofty expectations that were set in 2021, it has been one of the worst victims of the massive de-rating for micro cap tech/growth businesses as best highlighted by the great work of @JPPicard in a recent Substack article showing XF1 suffering a multiple de-rate worse than any of it's peers: https://goforgrowthco.substack.com/p/todays-growth-multiples

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So where are we today? Financially, the business reported mediocre results at the half year with total revenue growth of 8% through a mix of 15% growth in the core Xref segment and a -17% decline in the Rapid ID segment. It is worth noting that half on half Rapid ID has returned to growth so that headwind will ease moving forward. NPAT fell from roughly breakeven to a $1.5m loss as a higher cost base was put in place to bring forward product development of new modules for the release of their Enterprise subscription model. That said, even accounting for the higher cost base the business still generated over $1m in operating cash flow and breakeven free cash flow due to the working capital model. The business also has net cash of $7m.

The recent Product Development Update was positive, with management confirming they have completed the development of their Pulse Surveys module and it will become the third pillar of the Enterprise offering alongside Reference and Exit Surveys. The Enterprise solutions will also be complemented by the Trust Marketplace (Rapid ID) and Engage (Voice Project).

XF1 began selling the Enterprise platform back in October last year and the migration of existing clients from the transaction based model to the subscription model will ramp up with platform development complete. Currently only 7% of customers are on the subscription pricing however the $300k MRR is roughly 17% of total revenue. This is likely due to migrating large customers first, but the shift to subscription is expected to drive a bigger ARPU as customers can access more modules. Extrapolating the numbers from the update, ARR is $3-4m (depending on whether $0.3m MRR is rounded up from $250k or down from $350k) and implies total Xref revenue of $18-25m (ARR being 17% of total).

Looking forward, the commentary at the first half was for the second half to return to a small net profit which I expect is achievable if the cost base stays relatively flat from the first half. I expect this is likely achieved with $12.5m revenue broken down as $9m from Xref, $1.5m from Trust Marketplace and $2m from Engage with $12m in total expenses up from $10.5m at the half with the contribution from the acquisition of Voice Project.

Long story short, I feel like the multiple de-rate for XF1 has been wildly overdone. The heady days of 8x sales are behind us but XF1 is languishing with cash burning peers who appear reliant on the kindness of capital markets at a time when the markets are taking businesses like that behind the barn like Old Yeller. With XF1 being free cash breakeven and the prospect of growth returning with Enterprise upsell, Voice Project acquisition and easing of crypto-related Rapid ID headwinds I think XF1 deserves a premium to those peers.

JPPicard
Added 2 years ago

Thanks for the mention @Wini

I agree with you that applying objectivity, the selldown feels largely overdone.

The "growth at all cost" crew would have exited the business, and given the general complete lacklustre feeling towards small and micro caps atm, the lack of buyers caused a sharper dive than would have been felt otherwise in a more neutral market.

Looking forward, I'm keen to see what compelling event can drive a change in sentiment. It seems Xref will need a few key wins combined with their good numbers to win back the interest of investors.

I've always liked that they're a founder-led business with Martin at the helm who's always appeared optimistic, even in more challenging time. I wouldn't be shocked that they surprise to the upside in the near future.

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Noddy74
Added 2 years ago

Thanks to @Wini and @JPPicard for sharing their thoughts on XRef and it's another reminder about how I need to continually keep myself honest. I think I've been actively avoiding discussing XRef as it's been a VERY painful hold over the past 18 months. But the share price performance is not the same as the business progression. Notwithstanding the general slowdown that has impacted the underlying business the general progress of the business has been positive on most fronts. When I reflect on where XRef was when I first pitched it, it was largely a one-trick pony. It had carved out a very bespoke niche in automated/workflowed reference checking, it did a little bit of crypto-account setup checking, didn't have a recurring revenue model and was generating barely half the revenue it is likely to leave this year doing on a runrate basis.

Roll forward to today and it now can genuinely call itself a survey platform. It has solutions for the whole employee lifecycle - so-called Hire to Retire -, it is transitioning to a much more valuable recurring revenue model, it's added the already profitable Voice Project business as a premium offering (and at a reasonable acquisition price) and it's managed to do all that without many of the transgressions that have impacted its peers. It hasn't raised capital, it hasn't put its employees on big share equity schemes, it's continued to generate cash to the point it no longer needs to lodge 4Cs, it hasn't turned over management to any significant extent, it's done just a single tactical acquisition and it hasn't been overly promotional (it could afford to do a little more in this space in my view).

BUT if I left it there I would fairly be criticised for wearing rose tinted glasses, if not shilling for the company. It has been impacted by a slowing employment market and organic growth is likely to be minimal this year. Frustratingly it does continue to tinker with its reporting cadence and content, which does seem a little unnecessary and invites criticism of cherry picking data. It has also been somewhat slow to communicate with shareholders. The recent release of a Product Development Update and Investor Snapshot, as well as today's Investor Hub launch, may signal the Board feels completion of the platform is a logical time to start to address that gap.

As painful as the share price performance has been, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets further hit by tax loss selling in coming weeks, which may present a possible opportunity.

Overall I think it's got some mates in the microcap space when you look at the divergence between share price performance and progression of the business. There's plenty of crap that's now being valued like crap, but the market seems to be happy to shoot first and ask questions later - and seems to be content to wait quite a bit later. While the company isn't beyond reproach I haven't seen anything that would push me out of my position or make me think it won't stand up to questioning when the questioning comes.

[Held]

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Strawman
Added 2 years ago

@Noddy74 -- I salute the candour sir, and can certainly emphasise with your experience. It's been a painful re-rate for many growth oriented companies over the past little while.

There's a difference between companies that never live up to expectations, versus ones that just take longer than you expect. And I think you make a good case with Xref, especially given there's a lot less expectation in the current price.

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