Forum Topics NOV NOV CEO Steps Down (aside)

Pinned straw:

Last edited 2 years ago

Peter Cook today announced he was stepping aside. The full announcement below…

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02675748-3A619916?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

THESIS BROKEN: When it boils down to it NOV has had its hands in too many pies all of which presently take such small clips the margins are to small to be profitable without significant volumes.

So what I thought was actually the building out of an ecosystem appears now appears to be the add on of different business ventures looking to find an area that actually could generate significant revenue and then profits.

It also looked great that they were also funding so many starts ups, but, again in hindsight it looks like they were throwing a dart at a dart board with the hope of striking something big.

WARNING MISSED: CEO continually talking things up and not delivering on time. There was always an excuse on offer or the use of distraction via highlighting new developments to shift focus from cost and profit issues. I think there was also a flag on Strawman when the CEO was interviewed and he said something related to future market cap or price which, I believe Andrew noted at that time and had me wondering where his focus was (My recollection is not exactly clear).

SUMMARY: 1. Beware of those who talk too much and say nothing. The payments area is low volume so you better make sure you are consistently seeing significant growth each quarter.

Holdings: held but will be out today.



Bradbury
Added 2 years ago

@NewbieHK I agree that Novatti has alot going on which has potentially been providing a bit of a distraction from growing the key areas of the business. Peter did have a tendency to talk things up, outside of the banking licence, I don't think there were too many broken promises on time, however I think he may have been able to communicate timelines on business development a bit better to manage expectations. The biggest example of this for me is the the transition of their clients to their own acquiring licence, which will deliver improved margins. This was first announced at the end of 2021, however in the Q3 update presentation Peter said they have now commenced moving customers to the Novatti platform.

At the end of Q3 it looked like some of these pieces were starting to finally come together with the GTV in the new business areas like issuing and acquiring continuing to grow at a solid pace. As you indicated large transaction volumes are required for these businesses to work.

I was looking to add to my position IRL to try and catch the falling knife, but this announcement will keep me on the sidelines for a bit longer. The abruptness of the announcement is the key concern here, and there could be many factors at play. It could be the Q4 results are looking less than stellar and the board decided it was time for a change in direction, it could be personal reasons for Peter, maybe its another communication issue and there has been a succession plan in place for some time. For me the thesis isn't quite busted, but its now its final life.

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Bradbury
Added 2 years ago

Novatti had an investor presentation to introduce Mark Healy as the new CEO. It was a brief overview and didn't come across as overly confident. There were some indications at the Q4 numbers and whilst they weren't any special, they are moving back in the right direction. Mark also put a timeline on cash flow positive of the end of CY23, so the line is now in the sand.

Presentation

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What was good to see was the current customer growth across the issuing and acquiring businesses. NOV still remains a cautious wait and see.

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NewbieHK
Added 2 years ago

Cash flow positive CY2023! This seems a very big call based on their latest numbers. It also excludes the banking operations.

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