Also still no word on FID for JV with Pilbara Minerals or Leilac MOUs which were expected to come through some time end of FY23. Which is 2 weeks away.

Investing in CXL has always been about sticking to timelines just like Telix Pharmaceuticals. As an example when Telix did not receive the EU approval, the share price fell nearly 50% and the CEO had to go into damage control. So I understand why a majority of investors here and outside Strawman would not look at Telix and instead look at something more predictable.

I predict the same thing will probably happen with CXL if there is no news.

CXL is really just another biotech dressed up as an industrial.

Best to wait and see instead.

In hindsight I should have sold when it went north of $7.

Having said that, I have a tolerance for these sort of setbacks especially for new stuff like this.

[held]

I've recently been trying to put a value on Calix, and there's a wide range of potential outcomes depending on how conservative you want to be with the timelines on the LEILAC carbon capture projects. The Pilbra Minerals FID is the biggest catalyst for a step change in revenue, with around $80m p.a potential from the demonstration plant starting in CY25 based on the project getting FID approval on the current timelines. So I agree that having the demonstration plant green lit is a critical item for Calix.

After that, with the FID & construction of the commercial LEILAC projects only starting after LEILAC 2 has come online and demonstrated successful outcomes, I don't believe any short term delays in reaching MoUs in this space will impact overall timelines. I think the bigger risk in this area outside of technology risk is the delivery timelines around construction and commissioning of the LEILAC 2 plant.

I haven't found Calix management to be too bad with target time frame announcements, if anything the biggest misses have been with the IER division. Like you said, with Calix being a technology company with revenues and profits to match the market cap a long way on the horizon, the sentiment for the company is heavily based on the ongoing news stream and hitting targets.