Invex Therapeutics Ltd

ASX:IXC

Invex Therapeutics Ltd

ASX:IXC
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$0.080 (-2.4%)
Last close price
#599
Rank
2
Held by
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Pinned straw:
callawood
Added 10 months ago

It’s been a crazy few days for invex. Up +50% with a positive announcement. Then today down +50% and currently at negative EV (5-6m)

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today’s announcement

Update on IIH EVOLVE Phase III Clinical Trial & Initiation of an Independent IIH Market Assessment

Key Points:

• Lower than expected enrolment trajectory for IIH EVOLVE Phase III trial, due to higher screening failures and slower site activations than expected

• Revisions to Phase III clinical trial design required to remedy current design bottlenecks to enrolment

• Invex to focus on improving patient enrolment with amendments to both key inclusion criteria and secondary endpoints

• In parallel, the Company will complete a detailed market assessment initiated to understand the risk of approved GLP-1 receptor agonists to Invex’s IIH market opportunity

• Anticipated cash balance to 30 June 2023 of approximately $22.6 million
Invmum
10 months ago

Its a pretty large TAM -- surely enough for another player? Or is it the orphan status that's at risk?

3
callawood
10 months ago

I guess the issue at the moment is where it sits in the potential as you say huge TAM (or maybe not so huge). 

There’s a bit to take in from this new information. Apart from the bad timing with last week’s TBI announcement. I’m not the full bottle that’s for sure but we do need more clarity from here.  At the moment the statement says the end points of the trail remain unchanged and a new trail will be cash neutral. At least that’s a positive. With the new need for a protocol/trial design. This of course could also lead to more of a chance of trail success with a significant improvement in recruitment. Also while the time for approval will delay things the trail results should be quicker. 

With this honest announcement where does it go from here. Presendin still works. Maybe just have to wait longer. I still hold and watching

5
Invmum
10 months ago

Have made some changes to the tam - lower drug price in line with diabetes drugs/diet drugs ($1200/month)

and assumed market penetration only reaches 20% instead of 40% due to increased competition.... valuation decreases significantly but still >$1

This doesn't include opportunity in TBI



6