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#Roller coaster
stale
Added 2 years ago

It’s been a crazy few days for invex. Up +50% with a positive announcement. Then today down +50% and currently at negative EV (5-6m)

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today’s announcement

Update on IIH EVOLVE Phase III Clinical Trial & Initiation of an Independent IIH Market Assessment

Key Points:

• Lower than expected enrolment trajectory for IIH EVOLVE Phase III trial, due to higher screening failures and slower site activations than expected

• Revisions to Phase III clinical trial design required to remedy current design bottlenecks to enrolment

• Invex to focus on improving patient enrolment with amendments to both key inclusion criteria and secondary endpoints

• In parallel, the Company will complete a detailed market assessment initiated to understand the risk of approved GLP-1 receptor agonists to Invex’s IIH market opportunity

• Anticipated cash balance to 30 June 2023 of approximately $22.6 million

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#ASX Announcements
stale
Last edited 2 years ago

Invex Receives European Orphan Drug Designation for Exenatide in Traumatic Brain Injury

The market liked this announcement up 50% today

asx announcement

Invex Therapeutics Ltd (Invex, ASX:IXC, or the Company) a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialisation of PresendinTM (sustained release Exenatide) for neurological conditions relating to raised intracranial pressure, today announces the granting of orphan drug designation (ODD) from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for Exenatide in the treatment of moderate to severe Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI).

This is the second ODD for Exenatide in Europe, with Invex receiving an ODD for Idiopathic Intracranial Hypertension (IIH) in 2017, alongside an ODD from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), also for IIH.

The EMA provides a range of incentives in the European Union (EU) for medicines that have been granted an orphan designation, including ten years market exclusivity from the date of approval, clinical trial protocol assistance, access to the centralised authorisation procedure in Europe, and certain fee reductions.

TBI affects adult and paediatric population globally and remains one of the major cause of traumatic death and disability across all ages worldwide. Overall, 57,000 TBI-related deaths and 1.5 million hospitalisations occur every year in the European Union.i Management of intracranial pressure (ICP) elevation is considered critical in patients with moderate to severe TBI, however, at present, there are no EMA or FDA approved therapies specifically for the treatment of intracranial hypertension in this patient population.

Invex is currently investigating PresendinTM, a once per week, sub-cutaneous, sustained-release (SR) Exenatide microsphere formulation in a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase III clinical trial (IIH EVOLVE) in 240 IIH patients across the globe. Invex believes PresendinTM will be able to reduce ICP in a number of conditions associated with elevated ICP, including moderate and severe traumatic brain injury.

Dr Thomas Duthy Executive Director of Invex said “Since we first discovered the potent ICP lowering effects of Exenatide in pre-clinical models and within our completed Phase II Pressure IIH trial, the Company has explored other elevated intracranial pressure disorders, including TBI. Securing a European ODD for Exenatide is an important initial step in protecting the commercial opportunity in moderate to severe TBI, which is forecast to represent an annual market opportunity of US$2.45billion by 2027, growing 9% per annum

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#Quarterly
stale
Added 2 years ago

Quarterly call:

$25.4m cash

1st patient recruited Nov22, 5 sites activated. Should accelerate now post Christmas shutdowns.

But looking at 2 years before results are available >> 2 years recruitment + 24 weeks trial + assessment of data > 2025

no mid-way readout as would be penalised statistically and so would then need more patients

Pediatric trial can go ahead only if adult P3 trial is a success


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Valuation of $5.50
stale
Added 2 years ago

If approved will be a 1st line drug intervention so can capture 50-90% of the market. Diagnosed via a specialist so will be more familiar with the product and standards of care, easier to capture share. Due to fixed price manufacturing model, GM 85-90%. O/heads 10% of sales.

Starting rate of penetration of 15% FY27 in EU/UK/ market only, reaching 45% FY33.

TAM $1bn, growing to $1.6bn FY33. No cure so addressable market will expand annually as new patients are diagnosed

WACC 11%; Terminal g-rate 3%

Probability of success 17%

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#Financials
stale
Added 2 years ago

Hello!

Thanks to all the former contributors - good reading!


Has anyone tried to model this themselves? What gross margin assumptions are you using / overheads moving forward / rate of penetration. And does anyone know the assumptions behind the $1.6bn TAM?


Thanks

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#Broker report
stale
Last edited 2 years ago

12 July. MST Access maintains a valuation of $3.38.

Full March Report

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#media
stale
Added 3 years ago

You Tube;  Presentation to Broker Briefing 24th March 2022

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9B6IxaAVqI

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