Thanks for your feedback Bear77. It is good to see both positive and negative examples of the impact on share price of senior management walking out the door. It really does go to show that there is no single definitive indicator that provides advance notice of impending doom....but it is a red flag none-the-less. I am on the lookout for other red flags to further shake the thesis.
I think some red flags might be:
- some of those large holders reducing positions (such as Thorney)
- another director or senior executive following the CFO out the door
- slowdown in capital spend at the major miners (I should do my own homework here rather than relying on ANG mgmt to tell me that capital spend is forecast to increase)
- its a couple months away but I will be looking in the half-year report to see whether the 'strong tender pipeline' is playing out, and more importantly, converting into won jobs
Interestingly the MD bought 300,000 shares on market today spending $66k. He must have heard the sound of my confidence cracking and jumped right in! This takes his position to 500,000 shares worth maybe $100k. Still not what I would call heavily invested but a step in the right direction.
My stop loss was almost hit today with the stock reaching $0.205. I am concerned that I have set a stop loss at exactly the wrong time; when the general market seems to be tanking. As a result there is a possibility that my risk mitigation strategy is going to backfire into a forced sell under general market volatility rather than what was intended; to reduce exposure to ANG specific problems. I think I am going to push my stop loss down to $0.19 with the expectation of a bit more volatility.
The question is: when it hits $0.195 on continued volatility will I reduce again to $0.18...and to $0.17...and to $0.16.
Preparing for a broken thesis...
Austin Engineering is a high conviction stock for me for the following reasons:
- It has paid down significant amounts of debt and restructured successfully
- It has had a cashflow positive year and is talking up strong EBIT in F19
- The industry is cyclical and large miners are on the cusp of spending big capital again (or so mgmt say)
- Billionaire Alex Waislitz is very long the company owning ~24% and I like his investing style
But I have concerns. Management aren't heavily invested and just in the last week the CFO resigned "with immediate effect". There are many reasons why a senior executive would resign, but surely after many years in the doldrums doing it tough, one would think the CFO would be prepared to see it through to success, particularly given mgmt are telling us success is iminent. This is very concerning and I am wondering whether it is the first insight into my thesis unravelling.
I don't think the right course is to immediately sell; that seems trigger happy. But I do think I need a plan. I added Austin to the portfolio at $0.24 so am already marginally underwater. I am going to implement a 15% stop-loss based on my original add price of $0.24, which is around the $0.20 mark. Planning the stop-loss should prevent my conviction bias resulting in me following this to the bottom.
I would be interested to hear other strategies if anyone has thoughts.