Forum Topics ANG ANG Austin Engineering Ltd General Discussion
StrongflatWite
Added 8 years ago

Thanks for your feedback Bear77. It is good to see both positive and negative examples of the impact on share price of senior management walking out the door. It really does go to show that there is no single definitive indicator that provides advance notice of impending doom....but it is a red flag none-the-less. I am on the lookout for other red flags to further shake the thesis.

I think some red flags might be:
- some of those large holders reducing positions (such as Thorney)
- another director or senior executive following the CFO out the door
- slowdown in capital spend at the major miners (I should do my own homework here rather than relying on ANG mgmt to tell me that capital spend is forecast to increase)
- its a couple months away but I will be looking in the half-year report to see whether the 'strong tender pipeline' is playing out, and more importantly, converting into won jobs

Interestingly the MD bought 300,000 shares on market today spending $66k. He must have heard the sound of my confidence cracking and jumped right in! This takes his position to 500,000 shares worth maybe $100k. Still not what I would call heavily invested but a step in the right direction.

My stop loss was almost hit today with the stock reaching $0.205. I am concerned that I have set a stop loss at exactly the wrong time; when the general market seems to be tanking. As a result there is a possibility that my risk mitigation strategy is going to backfire into a forced sell under general market volatility rather than what was intended; to reduce exposure to ANG specific problems. I think I am going to push my stop loss down to $0.19 with the expectation of a bit more volatility.

The question is: when it hits $0.195 on continued volatility will I reduce again to $0.18...and to $0.17...and to $0.16.

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StrongflatWite
Added 8 years ago

Preparing for a broken thesis...

Austin Engineering is a high conviction stock for me for the following reasons:
- It has paid down significant amounts of debt and restructured successfully
- It has had a cashflow positive year and is talking up strong EBIT in F19
- The industry is cyclical and large miners are on the cusp of spending big capital again (or so mgmt say)
- Billionaire Alex Waislitz is very long the company owning ~24% and I like his investing style

But I have concerns. Management aren't heavily invested and just in the last week the CFO resigned "with immediate effect". There are many reasons why a senior executive would resign, but surely after many years in the doldrums doing it tough, one would think the CFO would be prepared to see it through to success, particularly given mgmt are telling us success is iminent. This is very concerning and I am wondering whether it is the first insight into my thesis unravelling.

I don't think the right course is to immediately sell; that seems trigger happy. But I do think I need a plan. I added Austin to the portfolio at $0.24 so am already marginally underwater. I am going to implement a 15% stop-loss based on my original add price of $0.24, which is around the $0.20 mark. Planning the stop-loss should prevent my conviction bias resulting in me following this to the bottom.

I would be interested to hear other strategies if anyone has thoughts.

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Bear77
Added 8 years ago

While I have never used stop-losses in my years of investing, I do still like your strategy here SFW, in that you will limit the loss, unless they call a trading halt or trading suspension followed by a profit guidance downgrade, in which case I expect ANG will fall through 20c and land somewhere below it (when they recommence trading). Stop-losses don't work in those circumstances. They can still get you out, but the loss might not be as limited as planned.

You make a good point about skin in the game also. All of my high conviction stocks do currently have management and/or board members with significant skin in the game. Many are those are also substantial holders, so own over 5% of the company. Founder-led companies where the founder/founders still have most of their personal wealth tied up in that company via share ownership is usually very positive, and I have found it to be a pretty good indication that management will usually act in the best interests of shareholders. That part also has me worried - about ANG.

I also understand that we shouldn't always be jumping at shadows. However recent history has taught us that shadows are often caused by things that aren't very friendly. Recent CFO walk-outs include RCR Tomlinson (now suspended from trading and in Administration), EXP (Experience Co, formerly Skydive the Beach), Homeloans Group (now renamed Resimac Group, ASX: RMC), and Tempo (TPP) in June - with half the board following him more recently.

It doesn't always signal an imminent collapse. In May this year, the CFO of CBA quit with immediate effect to go and run crypto-currency company Block.one based out of Hong Kong, and CBA are rather unlikely to be going broke any time soon. Last year we saw the Lovisa (LOV) CFO quit with 4 days notice in September, but LOV still managed to rise by around 150% from around the $5 mark then to around $12.50 in mid-June this year. They are down to $7.33 now, but still higher than when their CFO walked. My point is just that it CAN be a red flag, and with the recent RCR experience burned deeply into my memory, it certainly does cause me to pause and reflect these days.

Therefore, I would say that your method certainly has merit, and I don't have an alternative suggestion that I think is clearly superior.

It's a plan, and I think in cases like this, we do need a plan. Everybody will have to formulate their own plans of course, depending on their loss-aversion or loss-tolerance, risk tolerance, personal circumstances (especially financial circumstances), and of course their level of conviction in the company. I had a very high conviction in RCR before the first trading halt and trading suspension - before their MD & CEO Dr. Paul Dalgleish walked. I sold all my RCR shares on the day they recommenced trading, and I'm very glad I did. If I had kept any, I would certainly have sold them when they announced that their CFO had walked as well, AFTER the successful capital raising. But my conviction in RCR was already well and truly shattered by then. That's why I had already sold all my RCR shares.

Conviction, or gut feeling, intuition, call it what you will; if it has worked for you in the past, use it again; if it hasn't, perhaps best to err on the side of caution and step aside (out of play, onto the sidelines, i.e. sell). That's more my usual plan. It usually works out OK, but certainly not always. But that's me. I think your plan is a good one StrongFlatWite.

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