Pinned straw:
NEU is one of the three stocks pitched by Emanuel Datt from Datt Capital in this Livewire article today
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/3-small-cap-stocks-on-emanuel-datt-s-10-000-shopping-list
It doesn't mention anything not already covered but more that the fundie likes it
Hey @Nnyck777 , I don't really understand this therapy area. Do you have a view as to the total size of the market for Retts in US and, related to this, likely peak sales for Daybue, just for the Retts indication? With all of the milestones and tiered payments, I can't see the wood for the trees.
Although my view lags by a day or two, I have consensus for 2023 revenue still sitting at A$113m. They have the $US40 (A$59m) first US sales in the bank. However, your post didn't mention the US$33m (A$48m) "one third share priority review voucher for $100m sales" mentioned in the presentation., Based on the Q2-Q3 ramp, it look like it will $100m sales will be achieved during Q4, if I understand it correctly. While I understand the FDA Priority Review Process (PRP), I don't understand how this relates to a milestone payment passing to Neuren and the relevance of the $100m sales milestone relative to the PRP.
Here is my model patients ex US EU and Japan plus expected future milestones.
The priority review vouchers are sold for around $100 mil US.
No word on Acadia sale of this. I estimate this later this year but it is not certain.
If they use it themselves for a future drug molecule they will still have to pay Neuren 1/3 of the value.
See my latest thread for a breakdown on all payments due.
Cash on hand $240 million currently and my expected FY 24 of $223 million revenue
Just posted the above model to another regular Neuren poster and they also has $400 million by year 3. Nice to have a sense check.