https://endpts.com/acadia-gets-more-rights-for-daybue-forking-over-100m-upfront-after-an-impressive-us-launch/

As mentioned in this article Acadia’s launch of Daybue has exceeded all analysts expectations of speed of uptake. Most had estimated $3million in sales in the first quarter. Neuren receives milestone payments for first sales but also has huge benefit from tiered royalties on sales and milestone payments that are likely to be triggered quickly.

Hence similarly analysts in Australia have also grossly underestimated Neuren’s revenue. The announcement today barely increased the share price to the levels reached after original Daybue FDA approval in March. A closing price today was $13.59 a share.

Acadia has today released Q2 and 3 figures of not $3 million but $21-23 million and estimated $45-55 million respectively. This can easily be gauged by monitoring the number of insurance applications in progress.

The first sales milestone for Neuren will be triggered with $250 million in sales. A $50 million dollar payment will need to be paid by Acadia. Current figures show that this is likely to happen much quicker than anticipated.

I think that the Acadia / Neuren network that was in place with the Rett community was not well understood by analysts. These two companies have been working very closely with these communities for a decade. Debilitating neurodevelopmental conditions like Rett and upcoming trials for Fragile X, Prader Willi. Angelmen and Phelan McDermid have no real treatments. Communities are very engaged and aware of the release of a drug and the small populations are called upon for trials. There is a very keen awareness and likely uptake of candidates if positive trials are achieved.

Neuren has also made a strategic move releasing NNZ2591 rights to Acadia for the limited conditions of Rett and Fragile X. Purported to be the more bioavailable and likely better drug then even Daybue. This ensures developing this drug through Phase 2 and 3 trials will not risk Daybue’s future sales. The release of NNZ2591 will make an excellent successor to Daybue.

Jon Pilcher has importantly kept the rights for all other indications. So they have retained control and partnered with Acadia a company that has proven itself to be a world class leader in running trials and executing the approval and role out of Paediatric neurodevelomental drugs.

The question remains how long will Acadia be able to keep big pharma at bay? And if they are snapped up what will this mean for Neuren in the future who feeds it an important part of its drug pipeline? My sense is that Neuren’s phase 2 trials will be watched like a hawk and I suspect many players will via to get access to the drug. A future merger of Acadia and Neuren would also not be out of the question. How this would look is anyone’s guess.