Forum Topics AVR AVR Admedus Ltd General Discussion
PabloEskyBruh
Added 4 years ago

AlphaAngle (#Business Model / Strategy) makes a good and educated point about Anteris being outside what would be considered 'investment grade' in the traditional sense.  There is an inherently speculative component to buying and holding shares in this company at present.

What makes it interesting is that - in my opinion - the market is mispricing this risk.

It appears that if Anteris wins any market share of the TAVI space it will be in the form of a direct sale or licensing deal to one of the few big players that already have that share.

The Anteris claim to a competitive advantage is a 10 year head start on data for its ADAPT tissue which is the basis of its AVR offerings.  In the event a major licensing deal or sale occurs the risk of execution and market traction is sold with it.

This of course leaves the investor (or perhaps speculator) to await a binary outcome.  The investment thesis is that the market has underestimated both: the likelihood that Anteris has collated a highly desireable IP protected product; and, the amount that some deep pockets may be willing to pay for it.

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AlphaAngle
Added 4 years ago

I do like the concept if it works without issues there is a massive growing TAM. Going on my watchlist. I should probably do some work on this one.

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 4 years ago

I am presently thinking about Anteris in terms of inflection points.  The first of which already occurred a few months ago and is almost certainly formalised at an EGM tomorrow (Fri 19/03/2021) - that of the first sensible form of capital injection I have witnessed in my 5 years of holding this company.

A second is the likely publication of favourable clinical data comparing Anteris' AVR with that of the Medtronic (the US-based Goliath of AVR).

A third may be the submission and later FDA approval for a EFS on an in-human trial for Anteris' AVR.

I believe Anteris' own recent promotional behaviour is their own recognition of these inflection points (which, for me, is another inflection point in itself).

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 5 years ago

There is some momentum today (19/11/2019) based on Admedus' own PR of its attendance at the PCR London Valves Virtual Event.   It may look promising, but potential buyers of this company's shares should be mindful that so far there has been no addition of any revenue stream for TAVR to date.

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Strawman
Added 6 years ago

Bad luck on this one Pablo -- it happens to us all. Big kudos, though, for your frank and humble acknowledgement, and objective outline of the new situation. Most investors struggle with that (I know I do)

The fact that you are only down a few percent overall, and within spitting distance of the market is testament to the structure of your scorecard. There's every chance you'll climb ahead again as the other investment cases play out.

Onward and upward!

 

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 6 years ago

Thanks Strawman, time to pick up the old "worn-out tools" and focus on some new opportunities, and - to further paraphrase Rudyard Kipling - somehow hide the eventual losses on this one from the trouble and strife.

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 6 years ago

Thanks IceManMelb, I’m not sure which post in particular you saw, but welcome to my little shrine to the lost treasures of Admedus. It still has a small place on my scorecard, serving both as a reminder of my previous foolishness and, if I’m honest, there is still a desperate glimmer of hope on the distant horizon that I sometimes mistake for my ship coming in. But in truth, this poorly run company is an ugly barnacled anchor on the Steam Ship PabloEskyBruh. Whilst my fraying investment thesis is not completely broken things do look terminal, and it is certainly not an active recommendation of mine - which I hope my more recent ramblings makes clear. Admedus has left a scar on my investment psyche which serves as a constant reminder for me to be a more vigilant, sceptical, and street-smart guard of my capital which I have sworn to avenge. I hope any losses you have suffered in other companies (especially any ASX minnows) has left you with a similar resolve. I’m looking forward to seeing you around some of the happier hunting grounds of Strawman!

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