Ditto, its on my watchlist

Hi @Slew He recently did a brief Alan Kohler interview. He is a patent Lawyer - heavily involved in this space and seems very smart and like a straight shooter. The SP in my opinion is grossly undervalued and is the lowest in history of ASX I believe heading into FDA approval. SB looks like a potential $100 million min revenue product. What’s better is that it’s already been approved in Japan. I feel like this one is a no brainer but the skeptic in me wants to leave no stone unturned.

hi @Nnyck777 -- yeah looks interesting. I'll see what I can do.

Thanks for the post Nnyck777 as it quickly reminded me to add to my SM portfolio. I already hold in RL and looking to add a few more so it would be great if we can get a hook into Matt Callahan prior to the anticipated FDA approval.

Ditto.

Following the brief exchange with @Nnyck777 on this one a few weeks ago, I have dipped my toe in the water in RL and will also add today on SM.

I am eagerly researching this, so it would be amazing if we could hear Matt before the FDA decision, although I expect that it is too short notice now.

One question for @Nnyck777, in your reference to Japan sales, what were your sales assumptions for Kaken?

Looking at the corporate presentation, I see they have a FY23 sales target for Ecclock of 1,900m yen or US$13m. At US sales = 3xJapan, that would be $40m in year 3, growing at 50% p.a. If you can unpack your assumption for me, I'll put my valuation out there later today or tomorrow.

But even if I come in way under your $1.92, so for argument's sake let's say I get $0.60 in the success case, and $0.12 in the failure case, and if we agree that Japan sales points to a 70% success case for FDA approval, then on an EMV basis that still makes the valuation 0.3x$0.12 + 0.7x$0.60 = $0.456, and risk reward is risking $0.16-$0.12 for immediate upside of $0.60-$0.16, at 70% chance of success.

And that's before adding any M&A premium, as this would be compelling for a lot of established, bigger players.

So you'd expect it to multi-bag on FDA approval, and then Matt will announce the cap raise ($30million?), so the dilution won't be too bad.

Again, this is just finger in the air stuff, but even on a speculative basis, it looks compelling.

Can you reconcile the 1,900m yen FY23 sales to your assumptions? I've probably done something dumb here.