Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited

ASX:NEU

Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited

ASX:NEU
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$19.70 (+2.7%)
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#9
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35
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Nnyck777
8 months ago

For what a brokers view is worth - Neuren has been listed as a buy with a price target of $18.55.

Explains the movement today. Clearly analysts waiting for Daybue numbers and dollars to land in bank accounts before adjusting models. I bought more at $12.00 yesterday on release of Neuren’s results. An immediate price drop - absolutely no reason for this. Another opportunity to get in before the market digested it and up to $13.00 today. I really appreciate everyone’s modeling it really helps when you have solid targets in your own mind to hit the buy button on small dips.

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mikebrisy
8 months ago

@Nnyck777 I attended the results call yesterday. Jon made three comments which are interesting.

  1. When asked about the SP, he basically said that given the tremendous shareholder value created recently, that he was sure there had been some profit-taking, and this was placing downward pressure on the SP.
  2. He reiterated that NNZ-2591 Phase 2 milestones are a big catalyst. On this, he said that now that they have the sole rights for the 4 indications of NNZ-2591 this opens the way for publishing the trial results in peer reviewed literature. He didn't say they would, but that it was in prospect again.
  3. He remarked in Q&A that Acadia are starting patients at a lower dose ("maybe half the full dose") and titrating up, to allow management of the side-effects. He said the lower dosing and titration has been included in $ACAD's assumed pricing.


It wasn't clear to me what the timeframe of titration is, but I'd assume it would be several increments (maybe 2 or 3) over a month or two at each increment. This is good for two reasons. First, if side effects develop and are not tolerable (from the patient perspective) it allows for a step back, instead of a churn event. And secondly, it means that the initial sales figures have growth built into them as this process unfolds. This wasn't possible in the clinical trial, where everyone had to go on and stay on the full dose.

Not thesis changing by any means, but just on item 3. I think that is a positive regarding revenue build and churn.

I remain poised to act when the next $ACAD result comes in!

Disc: Held in RL and SM

12
Scoonie
9 months ago

The intelligent investor article is a reasonable one however the author is late to the NEU story. And a both improbable and unbelievable one it is!

If the FDA approved drug Daybue sells like it possibly will, then the milestone payments from this might get to nearly the market cap of $1.6b in the next 2 - 3 years. If it gets to sales of say $500 US/year, then from the royalties alone it will be selling on a PE of less than 20.

Further:

i) There are another four conditions under investigation have the potential for something like four times the expected revenue of Rhetts Syndrome. All are in Phase 2 and about 2 -3 years away from earning.

ii) NEU has $226m of cash right now to help them do it.

iii) The CEO John Pilcher is a persistent, clever and honest executive. And he has now done all this once before with Daybue. In relation to John Pilcher's persistence, he has been hammering away at this in anonymous financial purgatory for 10 years now. Quite a guy.


CSL sells on a PE of about 35 and COH about 50 and here is little old unloved NEU selling for likely less than 20. By the time everyone works it out it in the next few months (when the sales become less opaque) it will be a $25 share.

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