Hi @Nnyck777 … psychic … I have just issued my SM "sell " trade about an hour ago, or less. In truth, I sold all my remaining $XRO in RL several weeks ago at closer to $115.

This is a very significant move for me. I’ve held $XRO since late 2016, and sold all initially at $140 and $110 late in 2022 when it was on the way down from its all time highs.

I bought back in SM and RL around $70 when Sukhinder announced her "profitable growth strategy". I was going to decide to either "go big or go home" after hearing her promised US strategy due at the next results. However, I came away from the AGM with a feeling that there might not be a magic bullet on subscriber growth.

This sense is compounded by my observation that they have started pulling the pricing lever. In my thesis, they get a greater penetration of their addressable market BEFORE pulling the pricing lever. So, I have started to lose conviction in my thesis.

I know I may well regret this in the short term. Cost control and pricing increases are likely to more than make up for continuing softer subscriber growth. However, as you observe, there is A LOT in the multiple, and with a discount rate higher than two years ago, it is well-priced.

In my "when to sell" framework, I needed the capital elsewhere and it was hard to be dispassionate and disconnect from my good feelings about the company. In absolute terms, until recently, $XRO has made more money for me than any other ASX investment in the last 7 years. It was one of the hardest calls I’ve made. Time will tell as always. (Several much smarter people than me have price targets north of $140, but on my analysis the risk reward isn’t so great.)

For me, $XRO has always been about the US. And I think $INTU has that stitched up with too many levers to defend its position.

Next week I will write a short straw with some comparative analysis.

Disc: Not held in RL and … if my trade goes through … on SM.

It's a hard one @Nnyck777

On one hand, shares are on almost 13x revenue. Yes, the business is growing at a rate of knots -- 28% at the top line in the last year -- and has a long way to run. Plus, as we saw with the latest results, there's a big potential with margin improvement too.

It has to be one of the highest quality businesses on the ASX, and selling on valuation grounds has usually been something I have ended up regretting...

I'm certainly not a buyer at the current price, but i am mindful I shouldn't be too fussy either.

I guess you also need to factor in tax -- presumably you have a decent capital gains bill (a good problem to have), but if the plan is to sell out and buy back when the valuation is more attractive, it is something you should definitely consider.

That's probably of little help, but that's my 2c :)