Pinned valuation:
Based on $1.25 EPS, PE of 10 and 15% growth rate for next 5 years
Why do I own it?
# The best run furniture retailer in Australia with a strong founder/owner
# Long term structural tailwinds as population grows and hopefully they can keep taking some additional market share too
# Outstanding ROE and ROC, margins, cash flow and earnings growth for many years
# Possibility of further complementary acquisitions and multiple expansion as time goes on
# Long term plan to expand combined Nick Scali / Plush store count to 180 stores in ANZ.
# They can deliver double digit revenue and earnings growth for 5 + years so the return should exceed our 15%p.a. + target
# The MOS is good at entry point given the PE, PCF and PS.
# Sharing some of their cost advantages through lower prices to maintain market share
What to watch
# Debt to equity and assets trend - want to see it steady or declining ideally as it has crept up recently after Plush acquisition
# Maintenance of current high margins - avoid discounting and margin compression
# Watch accounting etc after recent CFO departure