Forum Topics RMD RMD Business Model/Strategy

Pinned straw:

Straw deleted
Solvetheriddle
Added 2 years ago

the US is obsessed with disruption, they see disruption way too easily, and will back it in, for awhile at least, even if the threat is nebulous. thats why i was cautious on rmd in the mid $30's no risk built in. i raised it on seeking alpha a while ago and got howled down, not now.

there is now risk built into rmd in my view, the mid 20's i will have a real go at them. now hold a position

however i still stand by my view that if these pills are subsidied they will impact demand for rmd products to a meaningful degree. how much? even rmd may not know that.

thats my view at this point. just had shoulder surgery typing is difficult atm sorry.

18
thunderhead
Added 2 years ago

With RMD down another 5% in the early going on the NYSE, it certainly looks like the knives have been sharpened, and the short attack is on.

9
mushroompanda
Added 2 years ago

It's interesting that everyone's talking about GLP-1 drugs and its impacts on the sleep apnea market.

A friend send me this FNArena article a week ago when we spoke about buying RMD: https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2023/08/09/august-turns-resmed-into-nigel-nomates/

5be6baa6b694ebea0d4c4113a3f1cf1df09650.png

I couldn't find anything that happened "overnight" with the said clinical trial.

Perhaps the temptation to showcase one's understanding of GLP-1 is too intoxicating to suppress.

18
Slideup
Added 2 years ago

@Mujo interesting article and does help to explain some of the recent dramatic moves. The irony of the anti-obesity drugs could be that they reduce the mortality risk of these heavily overweight people and actually make them need CPAP machines for a longer total length of time.

18

mikebrisy
Added 2 years ago

@Slideup most of what I am reading on the potential impact of drugs does even count as first order thinking, given factors we've all discussed here. But your comment is GOLD, and it makes a lot of sense, even if somewhat morbid. (Imagine +5, 10, 20yrs of machine upgrades and consumables increasing lifetime value of customers).

I don't mean to sound flippant and blinkered to the risk, it is certainly one to monitor. But the timeframe to do this is years and not days, weeks or months. I think it demonstrates one of the problems in equity research. There is a race to process ideas, to push out new advice to clients, and to be seen to be on top of things. But, boy, can it drive over-reactions followed by crowds hitching onto the band-wagon.

Overnight RBC (who have a decent healthcare desk) have cut their TP from $284 to $273. Let's put that in numbers we all understand: from $44.10 to $42.40. For my part, I am happy to let the grind of the quarterly results do their magic over time.

21

thunderhead
Added 2 years ago

Yes. That was one of my reflections in my first post reacting to their Q4 result - GLP-1 is a legitimate threat, but it will play out over a much longer timeframe, and may even have some benefits for RMD as @Slideup alluded to.

12