Forum Topics CDA CDA Trading Update

Pinned straw:

Added 9 months ago

The company released a trading update after market close today. The headlines are pretty dismal and I suspect the market will react savagely tomorrow. Revenue is down 10% and underlying NPAT is down 35%.

The metal detection business, with its biggest market in war torn North East Africa, and with the disappearance of the Russian market, continues to struggle, despite a continuous pipeline of new product developments which we are always told are well received.

The communications business is the rising star, accounting for well over 50% of revenue now. Revenue in this segment increased 14% and profit margin improved from 21% to 25%. (Still less than the detection profit margin of 32%). The forward order book of $163m is 60% of the entire FY23 revenue for this segment.

I still have great faith in the management of the company, and admire the way they have pivoted the business to a more predictable and growing source of revenue. No doubt there will be more short term pain for rusted on shareholders such as myself, but there is still a lot to like for those willing to be patient.

PortfolioPlus
8 months ago

The unaudited results are bang on their forecasts as at the half yearlies, so there really shouldn’t be any surprises. Indeed, the quality of the business has improved substantially. Not all sales dollars are the same. Which would you prefer - a dollar from an impoverished African living in a war torn country or a dollar from an American, government funded essential services entity?

It’s pretty hard to top their acquisitions into communications. CDA as a sole product focused detection business would be a basket case in todays geopolitical world and the immediate future is cloudy as well with the Wagner group re-entering Africa.

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Solvetheriddle
9 months ago

@lankypom rev +5% and npat +11% above my numbers, maybe im too bearish. 2H showed some recovery. we shall see

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Byrnesty
8 months ago

@lankypom and @Solvetheriddle I see the update as positive as it is above the outlook provided at the half year results.

Minelab results anticipated to be fairly flat with 1H23 and 10 to 15% revenue growth over 1H23 in Communications.

In my model this result is about 10% above my forecast.

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Rick
8 months ago

@lankypom @Solvetheriddle @Byrnesty Looking at the analyst forecasts on Simply Wall Street, the consensus earnings for FY23 is $63.6M. In the trading update underlying earnings are expected to be c. $65M slightly higher than consensus.The announcement should not be a surprise to the market, and hopefully the 35% drop compared to FY22 earnings has already been factored into the share price. Having said that, anything could happen from here!

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Source: Simply Wall Street (16/08/23)

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