Forum Topics CSL CSL Bear Case

Pinned straw:

Added 8 months ago

A contrarian opinion on CSL presented here (among other things).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NhZfbiACSg

Disc. : Held IRL

Solvetheriddle
8 months ago

@thunderhead i listened to this on my walk this morning. i have known ray for about 20 years, in a professional sense, and think he is very competent and i respect his views. however, having said that i disagreed with about half his calls on this chat,

imo, this is a great example where we both believe in a common inv philosophy, buy quality when it is on sale but disagree on what and when lol. happens a bit actually.

on csl specifically, i cant argue with his comments, although they were quite tame and more observe call than run for the hills.

the change in disclosure i thought was very minimal and can be backed out. secondly it is true vifor is yet to be proven, if it fails, it is obviously bad (the disclosed rev growth was encouraging though). also some of csls big margin high growth products are clearly slowing. idelvion, haegarda, kcentra and berinet. new products dont look quite as good for variuos reasons.

on the other side big positives were the place is still run very tight and is passing through (past tense) its most challenging period for 20 years, imo. the targeted normalisation of ig to pre c19 margins is huge, on my numbers close to $1b p/t. will take time but they are the best in the world at ig production. my sense is, of course if the unexpected disruption c19 caused on CSl was known 3 years ago u would exit quickly, but that we are now closer to the end than the beginning of that disruption . i am willing to back them from here over next few years atm. held irl




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thunderhead
8 months ago

I am in your corner too @Solvetheriddle. Thank you for sharing your views.

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