Forum Topics EGG EGG Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Added 8 months ago

Technically speaking EGG broke my rules this morning with the greater wave 4 dropping into wave 1 territory gapping down with high volume below th 50 on the 1D. Im now out completely untill I see another set up. You win some and you loose some. Move on.

loshell
8 months ago

I suspect it broke your "rules" because it reported a stinker and a bunch of folks who picked up shares in the pre-EOFY fire sale were primed to sell if the news wasn't passable to good.

I haven't had time to digest the reported results yet but my cursory review on Friday when they were released indicated they're substantially worse than I was expecting + the "correction" to OBMedia's traffic levels and forward looking expectations was particularly unexpected + bizarre.

More thoughts likely to follow after I find some time to fully digest the results unless someone beats me to it...

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UlladullaDave
8 months ago

I suspect there was a lot of money sitting in EGG because eyeballing a SotP it looks cheap given OBM's historical performance. Then they "rebase" (LOL) OBM's revenue and tell the market to also expect a fairly hefty decline in EBITDA margin for OBM as well. This is a pretty cyclical basket of businesses anyway and advertising has been tough the last 12 months so it shouldn't be completely out of left field and the SP performance doesn't indicate the market was particularly surprised.

I still think it looks cheap if you can look through the current downturn. But you have to accept that this is an acquisitive management team and they tend to overpay for the things they buy; some of the reluctance around reporting OBM performance is, imo, because they don't want to tell everyone there is only one real engine in the company as it would naturally lead to questions about spin-offs/sales etc.

The strategic review of OBM is probably the only real positive to take out of the results. And the writeback of some earn-outs in the more recent acquisitions.

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