I think I sold mine for a 30% profit back in the day. Felt pretty smart at the time...

*Sigh*

I remember. I decided to hold on (atleast up until the aforementioned taking profits at $18). I also didn't double down on the re-rec from back in the day. Oh well...if only pigs could fly!

Don't worry @Strawman, we fully back you to find the next ALU on our bourse. No pressure :P

@thunderhead I've been listening to Aram now since I first bought $ALU in RL on 9/9/2016 (a Matt Joass MF Pro recommendation) for $9.46. This is a CEO who has a vision to transform an industry and 7 years later, the vision is still there, and it is delivering.

I think there are several sources of upside: Pro becoming the standard, more Enterprise sales, and more Enterprises having more functions working in the platform (e.g. procurement as well as design). North America has been the engine room leading this charge, followed by EMEA but eventually China, India and RoW might also get onboard.

Interestingly, GoldmanSachs (TP $41.00) had it on a list of potential "negative surprises" for this reporting season based on slowing US manfuacturing. But North America has been the standout, and it is RoW that has underperformed.

They are still investing in Octopart. The pandemic showed what this can be, when everyone is scrambling to source parts, and I guess analysts are down on it now because that peak has passed. But they are building its capability and Aram talks about it bottoming out in 1H, then growing again in 2H and taking off in FY25 and FY26. He has said similar things in the past about other parts of the platform, and generally he has been proven right.

Aram spoke about other drivers on the call. Its always too much for me to digest because his speech doesn't track the slides, so I'll go over the transcript when its out.

Only nasty surprise: they paid US$27m (50%) of their disputed ATO liability, so cashflow was flat. They hope to get it back, and don't believe the other 50% will fall due. No doubt they'll spend a couple of million taking the ATO to court. Who knows where it will land. Its not immaterial, but it doesn't affect the thesis.

From a valuation perspective, I have it at $35-$42 before today's result. When I did my first valuation in 2016 ($11.35), it was just ahead of the SP when I bought, and my valuations have reliably ground higher 19% every year on average (excluding small dividends). OK, the truth is I've had my ups and downs along the way, so that number is an average, and I have taken profits along the way, which today I regret! Even if it doesn't continue at that rate going forward, I can comfortably see this continuing to exceed a 15% return pa. So I'm not going anywhere. I think $ALU can continue to be a long term compounder.

Thank you @mikebrisy for your detailed analysis and views, and please keep 'em coming so mere mortals like me can benefit!

ALU is one of my longest standing positions. I bought it at $4.x in August 2015, and have added a couple of times at higher prices since (most recently around $25, and this is was when the Autodesk takeover first fell through I think? Perhaps not - it may have been earlier than that though I can't be bothered checking). Like you, I have also taken profits, but only once at around $18. This was done purely to manage the size of the position in my portfolio at the time (my portfolio was a lot smaller then, a lot more capital has been added and growth has taken place since).

Like I have opined earlier, the sell decision is the hardest in investing. This was a case of leaving good money on the table just to make sure the position was within some arbitrary size limit. This is why it is so important to have a good handle on the long term potential of the business, so you can leave aspects of portfolio management like valuation, position sizing and risk etc. to a side and hold with conviction through the ups and downs.

When I say I don't see much valuation upside, short of the company delivering well ahead of expectations (which is entirely possible - I, like you, hold Aram and his management team in high regard), the market seems to be pricing in a rosy couple of years already. Of course, the stock has traded in a wide range between the low to mid 20s and early 40s over the past 3-4 years, so at some stage, as long as the business continues growing, it is going to break out - and that will be a beaut on my average price. Altium has already "Spiffypopped" (to use a David Gardner term for when a stock goes up more than your cost base in a single day) for me a couple of times over my relationship with it, and I look forward to the day when it delivers more of that in spades. I have little doubt it will even if it is a way off :)

P.S. I know an investor on HC who bought ALU when it was trading for 10c, and has held and/or added all the way through. Can you imagine that?

Yes, I also took most of my money off the table when Autodesk made their offer. My valuation then was $27, so it just seemed too good. And I think it actually was. So I don’t regret that sell. It was the sell downs at $15 and $25 that I think weren’t well informed. But it is all too easy to be a genius in hindsight.

The Autodesk takeover offer was attractive indeed, but by then I developed such a high conviction that I stuck by the board when the offer was knocked back. Of course, the price action since hasn’t exactly vindicated that decision, but that would be short-sighted because the runway is very long and will play out over many years.

I also happen to hold shares in ADSK directly. Another great business, but doesn’t have ALU-like multibagger potential, so I’m glad ALU is still a standalone company!