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Pinned straw:

Added 10 months ago

Business transformation to accelerate strategy and Q4 2024 free cashflow

Announcement by Vista Group that they are going to align the group's business' under the one umbrella which will simplify the business as a whole. This will result in a reduction of the global workforce by 6-8% to be completed by the end of 2023.

Free cash flow positivity is expected to occur 12 months earlier, in Q4 2024 due to changes in its capex program which is now expected to occur over 4 years compared to 2 as was announced earlier. Guidance for 2025 remains unchanged with ARR of between $175m-$205m (NZD) with EBITDA margins of 15+%.

Full announcement here

Disc: Held IRL and on Strawman.

RhinoInvestor
9 months ago

Good to see this change in their burn rate and the commensurate headcount reduction. The management reshuffle looks mainly like new titles at the moment so will be interesting to see how that plays out in culture shift over time.

My hypothesis for this stock is based upon two things.

  • A recovery of global theatre goers from COVID. Its taking its time but according to BoxOffice Mojo we saw 28% up in Q1, 15% up in Q2 and 35% up in Q3 to date compared with the prior year. We are nearly up to FY22 totals already and its only August. While I'm suspicious if we will ever get back to pre-COVID numbers (streaming something in 4K and Dolby Atmos a few months later onto a 70 inch TV in the comfort of your own home is pretty compelling) we seem to be on the right trajectory

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  • A re-rating of the stock's multiple if they are successful in pivoting towards the SaaS revenue as annual recurring revenue is likely to increase. While I'm not sure if it will ever get back to the 50x range, I'm looking for at least a 30-35x once the transformation has played out.


Since COVID they have had a pretty big dilution 174m to 233m shares outstanding and also now have much more debt on the balance sheet (albeit they seem to have been knocking this down the last couple of FYs) so those are the main headwinds. However, I'm happy to see how things play out over the next 12 to 18 months with most of my IRL shares acquired around the $1.35 mark. I'm looking forward to the half year update coming up this Friday 25/8 and will then be recutting my numbers. I'm currently looking for a share price around 2.10 as the next point I have a good hard look at what I want to do.

DISC: Held IRL and Strawman

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BoredSaint
8 months ago

Talk about an illiquid stock. Results released and no trades have gone through! Will do a write up later this afternoon.

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