Pinned straw:
New anti-obesity drugs have the potential to transform public health, while obliterating demand for products and services from the medical, food and fitness industries. Think of them as total unaddressable markets (TUM).
Let's Inject this and see whom is dejected. Medical / Health = Disrupter? (it rhymes)
Injection drugs used for treating type 2 diabetes and made by Novo Nordisk and Lilly, is seen at a Rock Canyon Pharmacy in Provo, Utah, U.S. March 29, 2023.
Full report: Anti-obesity drugs can shrink more than patients | Reuters
Among the potential losers are firms like ResMed (RMD.N) and Inspire Medical Systems (INSP.N), which make products that treat sleep apnea, a condition where patients intermittently stop breathing while asleep. Around 70% of sufferers are obese. On a call with investors in August, ResMed CEO Michael Farrell said he thought weight-loss drugs wouldn’t have a major impact on the company’s future sales because the treatment is harsh and its cost would discourage many patients from taking it long term, while awareness of the effects of obesity could push patients towards apnea treatment. Even so, ResMed’s stock has since lost about a third of its value.
Meanwhile, companies selling joint replacements such as Zimmer Biomet (ZBH.N) and Smith+Nephew (SN.L) could see their $25 billion and $11 billion values slimmed. These two firms earn about two-thirds and 30% of their revenue, respectively, from hip and knee implants. One study estimated about a quarter of surgical cases involving knees could be avoided if patients weren’t overweight. Rival weight management treatments also look vulnerable. Since June 2021, when Novo Nordisk’s first obesity drug gained regulatory approval, shares of WW International (WW.O), formerly Weight Watchers, have collapsed about 70%, despite the company unveiling a plan to distribute weight-loss drugs.
But the cost for the injectables:
The researchers reported one-month supply costs as $974 for tirzepatide vs $892 for semaglutide, based on wholesale acquisition costs as of the time of their analysis. The researchers found that total costs were higher in those treated with tirzepatide as opposed to semaglutide.12 Apr 2023
Ozempic (semaglutide) is used to improve blood sugar control in adults with type 2 diabetes. There are currently no generic alternatives for Ozempic. Ozempic is covered by most Medicare and insurance plans, but some pharmacy coupons or cash prices could help offset the cost.
DYOR.
I took an IRL 3% position as well.
My thesis is a little different to many, in that I think, over time anti-obesity drugs will be become increasingly effective and well tolerated with fewer side effects.
However, there are a number of different factors at play. The points I do not think have been addressed are as follows:
Not to re-hash others well made points, but in bullet point form, the other tailwinds are:
So, I believe the window is wide and we will get window of warning before it starts closing.
There are counter arguments. People undergo bariatric surgery at great out of pocket expense and a small but very real risk of death or significant complications, so there is certainly a sub-group of motivated people for whom these drugs will be useful. There are also multiple long term issues with this intervention, but it doesn't seem to stop people doing it. (Although it hasn't dented the rise of CPAP usage!)
The drugs could rapidly get highly effective and tolerable and also funded by health insurers. I think it is unlikely, but can't be discounted.
The barrier to knock-off generics plummets and everyone buys their weight-loss drugs on-line from India. It could happen, I suppose.
@jayjayjay Indeed, a short cut is often the longest distance between two points :).
There's an interesting show on Netflix at the moment entitled Live to 100: Secrets of the Blue Zone that
investigates areas of the world (blue zones) where people live for very long
and stay healthy. If you don't have Netflix here's a link to a summary:
https://www.rollingstone.com/tv-movies/tv-movie-reviews/live-to-100-netflix-doc-aging-secrets-dan-buettner-blue-zone-1234814791/
And the summary paragraph is shown below:
It all
makes for a pleasant travelogue, which comes with what should be a troubling
subtext for many American viewers. These people generally don’t eat fast food
or drink soda. Instead of investing in gym memberships that they sporadically
use, they organically weave physical activity into the fabric of their lives,
walking where they need to go and working and making things with their hands,
and tending the gardens that yield the fruits and vegetables they put into the
bodies. They put quality of life over status and earning power. They are
honor-bound to take care of their elders; you won’t see a lot of retirement
homes in Live to 100.
They have either gamed late-stage capitalism or avoided it altogether. They
have stayed with the old ways and grown old along with them. In general, these
seem to be not just longer lives, but also better lives.
Activity and retaining muscle mass and flexibility seem to be very important.
@jayjayjayjay yes, Rudi and Claude summed it up well.
I would say in addition that evidence is already emerging that the drugs are not well tolerated. Various published reports conclude that the GLP-1s have anywhere from only c. 35% to 65% compliance after 1 year (compared with over 80% for CPAP).
Your point then is that the weight comes back with a vengeance (unless lifestyle is changed…good luck with that), so again perhaps over the medium term these drugs just drive the addressable market for CPAP even higher.
Rudi clearly bought more on the initial fall (like me) and it’s never nice to see SP go even lower, but it is the inevitable result of an increasing short position. (I’ve also been there in the past with $RFF, $TNE (held) and $WTC(held)).
Ultimately, $RMD’s results will do the talking. $FPH at their AGM last week reported demand for home segment ahead of expectation, so the prescribing of GLP-1s is not yet showing any short term demand effect - which you might expect it to if everyone was rushing to try the new next best thing.
Short theses are more often wrong than right. But it can take time for them to be broken.