SomnoMed Limited

ASX:SOM

SomnoMed Limited

ASX:SOM
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$0.215 (+2.4%)
Last close price
#269
Rank
11
Held by
26
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Reports (3) My Report Forum Investors
Forum Topics SOM SOM Business Model/Strategy

Pinned straw:
wtsimis
Last edited 8 months ago

Took the opportunity to top up stock today at 64c.

Although the price of the capital raise (60c) and the dilution it is representing (SOI increase from 78.6m to 100m or 27%) is not what i would be attracted to but I can understand the purpose.

SomnoMed future sits with Rest Assure.

This is not new and well understood and was instrumental to drove the valuation to just shy of 200m market capitalisation in November 2021.

As it currently sits the MC is 62.9m prior to capital raise.

It may be that concerns are well and truly baked into the share price and time will tell if this proves to be a great opportunity.

Why i topped up ?

Overall the for me the thesis is still in check although there are concerns to keep a watch on including :

  • competition impacting growth and
  • the Rest Assure roll out not gaining traction across the globe.


Revenue year on year has risen since 2014 ( 26m 2014 to 83m 2023) and EBITDA remains positive across the past 5yrs.

Looking forward management are targeting 12% revenue growth in 2024 which is on track as stated in the market update last week.

More broadly management are targeting 20% CAGR with 10% EBITDA in 2027.

If this was to occur we would see revenue reach approximately 160m and EBITDA 16m.

This may be a stretch as we currently stand but if this was to transpire or to the mid point I believe current SP and pessimism would reflect good value.

Interested to know other's views in current developments.

Disc: Hold in RL and SM



loshell
8 months ago

@wtsimis The SPP price is 60c, not 70c i.e. you topped up above the raise price?

(I hold and will participate in the SPP unless I can get shares cheaper on market before the offer ends)

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wtsimis
8 months ago

LOL.

A little embarrassing

Thanks for correcting SPP offer . I will correct my statement.

8
loshell
8 months ago

No worries, just making sure I hadn't misunderstood some aspect of the retail offer!

FWIW, I'm treating SOM and RMD as a dual hold bet as I've recently taken the RMD pull back to initiate a position along side a small SOM holding I've had for a while.

My wife uses a mouth splint to mitigate mild sleep apnea that was discovered as a comorbid issue during a sleep study. She tried CPAP but it was a bit invasive and not sufficiently better in terms of the clinical sleep data compared with a splint, so the splint won. In terms of side effects, the splint has changed her jaw/teeth alignment a bit but not enough to be a big problem, and there have not been any major side effects.

My thinking is that splints offer a great option for a large percentage of apnea sufferers (diagnosed and undiagnosed), but CPAP also has a place for many sufferers too. The increasing focus on sleep quality seems like a general tailwind for both. If SOM can get their "smart splint" perfected and rocking, I think they have a very bright future, and RMD's proposition is already well established and proven, some uncertainty about future addressable market notwithstanding.

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wtsimis
3 months ago

Thanks @loshell .

I am on the same pathway having done a sleep assessment following snoring which was causing both my wife and i to have interrupted sleep.

The assessment resulted in me being on the cusp of CPAP but we opted for fitted mouthpeice from somnomad.

That was 2 years ago and it is working a treat.

I similarly topped up on RMD in the September quarter and hold both.

SOM release yesterday was interesting and i will post to get perspective from the community.

PS apologies for late reply.




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