Forum Topics PVL PVL Value on Offer?

Pinned straw:

Added 11 months ago

At 4.5c, PVL has a market cap of A$5.43M.

The company has cash of A$3.2M, and minimal operating cash burn.

If one values the cash fully, then the portfolio (ex-cash) is being recognized at just A$2.23M, by Mr Market (i.e. A$5.43M market cap minus A$3.2M cash).

Yet, the company has a reported portfolio value (ex-cash) of ~A$7.59Mbased on major independent pricing events (i.e. raises involving other VC funds or 3rd parties).

In other words, the market is treating the PVL portfolio (ex-cash) at a discount of ~70% (e.g. [A$7.59M - A$2.23M] / A$7.59M).

And yet, 4 of the top 5 positions (Cirrus, Skykraft, Ferronova, Inhibit) have been through major pricing events (i.e. increased in value) across the past 24 months and the other has held its value (Urbix).

In contrast to the share price, the portfolio companies are performing - NTA has increased from 7c to 8.9c across the past 18 months.

Time will tell whether Mr Market is being erratic or not.

NewbieHK
11 months ago

It’s really an early stage BTI (Bailador). For those with a higher risk tolerance and willing to sit back and wait for the various funding rounds to proceed there looks to be an opportunity. So in effect it’s real venture capital investing.

Using BTI as a comparison it seems the cash is what the business is being valued at with the unlisted investments at this stage making small impacts on the overall price. With BTI you are basically getting the unlisted holdings for free with the valuation covering cash and listed shares.

It’s possible that until PVL gets its first public listed investment it might be slow progress as it cycles in and out of unlisted opportunities slowly increasing its cash reserves.

However, it may only take one of its investments to public list at a significant premium for this to pop!

Held: IRL (to scratch the VC itch)

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Slideup
11 months ago

@TEPCapital do you have any thoughts on what is likely to happen beyond Dec 23, as my understanding is that all of the options that were granted in leu of salary to the directors and leadership team will expire out of the money. Do you think they are likely to keep taking their salary as options or will opex costs increase dramatically in 2024 as everyone wants a salary again. Working for 2 years without a payback must be a tough pill for some of these guys.

it definitely appears undervalued but I don’t really see a catalyst to change that in the near term.

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stevegreenycom
11 months ago

I look at a bit like @Slideup in some ways. That is @TEPCapital , when you say "minimal operating cash burn", I see where you are coming from there are signs of that in an absolute value sense. The concern is though, expenses as a percentage of their asset base when you think of it that way are not so "minimal". Can see some tempting aspects here but it's this that is a little off-putting, would be much less of an issue if they had closer to $50 million assets they were looking after.

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TEPCapital
11 months ago

Thank you for your thoughts, @Slideup & @stevegreenycom.

Regarding the options, which are due to expire beyond December 2023 (strike price > 20c/share), my understanding is that it is likely that a new set of management options will be released, pending shareholder approval at the next AGM to incentivize management. These might be set at a strike price of ~10c, instead of the original ones at 20c, which was far too ambitious (in hindsight) relative to the current share price of 4.5c/share. Although there were no cash fees initially (following the overhaul of the board in late 2021), the board is now on a small/reasonable set of director fees - and so these numbers are already accounted for in the most recent accounts. Ben Hodge (Investment officer) and Geoffrey Nicholas (CFO) are on a modest salary, but other than this it is a very lean operation. I agree with you Steve that if they could step up into greater scale, these investment costs would be much less imposing on a percentage of assets basis. This is the plan of the management team, but it will take time and ongoing solid performance to scale NTA. I appreciate their conservative and judicious use of their cash.

"We are aware that our low stock liquidity and relative small balance sheet has weighed down sentiment for our stock price, especially given the macro market conditions. There are not too many transactional or short term levers we can look at to differentiate ourselves away from this. The things we can control are our investment process and the fostering of the team-based building blocks at an enterprise level, as described above and as demonstrated with one portfolio companies’ early and immediate revaluation. We remain confident that over time the quality of our investment portfolio will enable us to lock-step us out of the current pricing sentiment" - Chairman, FY23 Annual Report

Regarding catalysts, that is a very good point, Slideup. I think there are a few. Firstly the board is currently engaged in capital recycling opportunities. I.e. Approaching/being approached by investors in the secondary market to offload some of the more legacy investments for a value at or greater than the current carrying value. They have already achiveved this successfully with Firmus Grid. Also, it is possible that some of the legacy investments could phoenix. Of course, it is not the board's intention though (as far as I am aware) to sell out of any of the strongly performing or high conviction investments, such as Skykraft or Cirrus, both of which have multibagged so far. I think a takeover or activist investor is a possibility, but this is somewhat dampened by the presence of Capital H with a >20% stake in PVL and a board member (Joshua Baker). Capital H have an average entry price closer to 10c/share and so they will (I hope) ensure that the company is not taken private at any level lower than fair value.

Would love to hear additional views.




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stevegreenycom
11 months ago

Seems like a good summary to me @TEPCapital of the points around scale of the company, potential future catalysts, control and the board's thinking etc. I haven't looked at this all that closely to be honest. Although the issues around these sort of points I have had a bit of a look and agree with you there.

Where I can't add any value though at this stage to the discussion is the main factor about where these top holdings are headed and when they may be able to offload them at a good price etc. At the end of the day if you are confident there and get that call right you should be rewarded with plenty of upside eventually.

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UlladullaDave
11 months ago

It's too small really. You could halve the discount tomorrow morning by buying $30k of stock and then send it back to where it is in the afternoon when you try and get back out....

Without a specific catalyst that closes the gap this could trade like this for years. I have no knowledge of the underlying assets and given the size and free float/liquidity it's just not really worth my time trying to find out. I suspect that is the mentality of most people who look at it.

Out of curiosity, how did they spend $60k on travel?

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TEPCapital
11 months ago

Good comments, thanks Dave. I agree that the illiquidity means this company is better suited to longer-term investors. My own investment horizon on PVL is 3+ years, when I think we'll see some material uplifts (Series C of Urbix, Series A of Skykraft, Series C of Liquid Instruments, etc). Although I might trade a small amount on the thesis that the SP/NTA discount will close at some point (probably not entirely, but partially).

With respect to the travel spend for FY23, I agree, A$60k seems extreme! The only thing I can imagine here is that the PVL Chairman, James Kruger, has been overseas on a couple of occasions. He is Chairman of Quantum Brilliance (one of the portfolio companies) which has offices in Germany, so he may have made a trip there. Also, he may have made a trip to US to visit Urbix which is also in the portfolio. James Kruger has been instrumental in helping Urbix structure agreements with graphite resource companies and Asian (mostly Korean) battery manufacturers. A few of the portfolio companies are also New Zealand based. Lastly, I suspect, James Kruger and perhaps Ben Hodge as well have been traveling Australia looking for their next portfolio investment. The spend seems excessive, although nothing beats face-to-face relationship building!

The trajectories of the share price and value (NTA) are on inverse angles, so surely the price has to turn soon! If I had to guess, I would say the share price will react on the next ASX release detailing another portfolio re-valuation (NTA uplift). Whether that is a few months or a year from now is anyone's guess!

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