@mikebrisy

I'm still away, and only had a quick read. Great work! Thank youl

If i am reading this correctly, your valuation does not account for potential new PNV products?

"New products for applications in breast, hernia, other internal procedures, and drug elution are all still assumed to be “blue sky” upsides, even though this is where the lion's share of the R&D spend will do. So, there are significant potential upsides for the business that have not been contemplated in these valuations."

These new PNV products would be the 'thick icing on the cake'! The revenue per sales person would materially go up for almost no increase in Opex. And these new products could start to generate cash in 2-5 years from now.

Do we have a feel for where these new products are in their development lifecycle? This could easily as another $0.50-1.00 to any valuation of SP.

@Parko5 the new products were oversold in terms of timeline under former CEO Brennan, and I believe DW didn't know better than to go with what he was being told (he's an investment banker, not a clinician!).

Swami has rowed expectations right back ever since the 2022 AGM when the new head of R&D responded off-script to Q&A from attendees. DW and SR have not mentioned any timeframe ever since. Furthermore, SR has said that they are back at the option development stage for (I can't remember which) hernia or breast. That implies to me they are playing with the polymer chemistry/physical formation to get the right mechanical propoerties. So I think they are years off, and that's why I have not given any value for new products other than to use their potential arrival to justify my continuing value growth assumption at 10 years+.

This could be a blessing in disguise. As completely new product applications look more distant, this will lkely have them look harder to new variants (like MTX) for various dermal treatments. In fact, the rapid growth in UK sales (c. +169%) according to DW wasn't primarily due to burns at all, but surgeons applying it to other applications. From day 1 SR has been clear that $PNV needs to get close to the surgeons who are doing the innovating.

Personally, I'd rather development funding was applied to getting more studies done on dermal applications. For example, Novosorb isn't yet approved for full thickness burns in the USA although it does have this approval in some other jurisdictions.

So I think there will be new variants of products like MTX for dermal applications. But I don't think the truly "new products" (like breast, hernia and drug elution) will appear on a 5-year horizon. If they do crack the code earlier for breast and hernia, then that would be a further upside.