Forum Topics SEQ SEQ Distortion = Opportunity

Pinned straw:

Added 8 months ago

One of the most unusual statutory presentations of FY23 results by SEQ, and one which has being unappreciated by analysts.

For starters, the company elected to display the Morrison results on one line - basically as net profits from disposed of division’.

so when you read the actuals presented by Refinifiv and others, it totally distorts a number of key indicators - such as rev, EBITDA increases or decreases etc.

Yes, Garry Croll covered these in his presentations and videos, along with a string of adjustments to get ‘normalised’ results (which I hate, particularly since this now appears to be an annual inclusion).

The results were lousy - we were prepared for that - and the future looks much brighter - but go back one year and GC was similarly optimistic. I like GC, I do, but he is now on watch to ensure the FY24 actuals back up the vision.

I do like his quirky invention of ROME - Return on Managements Estimates (of the value of the sum of the parts). Currently he sees the sum of the parts adding up to $135m against a market cap of around $70m

i did stump up and buy more in RL because of the value of the grossed up special dividend and the cash warchest following Morrison completion and his mentioning strong performances in the final months of FY23 and continuing into July and August. Plus increasing your pool of financial advisors by 5% when the industry lost 35% says they must be regarded highly..

But, I will be watching their approach to deploying the cash.

JoeWolf
8 months ago


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thunderhead
8 months ago

Hit and miss is the right way to describe the journey as a shareholder for the past year or so. Hopefully there are way more hits than misses in the future - the special dividend was nice, but does make you question the runway for growth the business has, organic or otherwise - inorganic comes with heightened risk at the best of times anyway.

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jayjayjayjay
8 months ago

I 100% agree with this. GC is hit and miss. I like him, he is a very likeable bloke and I think he is doing reasonably well in tough circumstances. He is also aligned with shareholders.

but he has made some errors along the way including some questionable acquisitions and I have often caught him saying things in presentations which ultimately end up way off the mark, inaccurate or don’t come to fruition. Not sure he knows how to use a computer either which is worrying, his approach is old school which has its pros and cons.

overall willing to back him in I think he has good industry insight and has overall done well since becoming CEO. I am expecting the next year to be far more positive and hope he uses the war chest wisely. I sort of feel some of them dodgy acquisitions were a learning curve and the ones since seen to be far better in quality. Lucky he gets a second shot at things with the divestment money of Morrison’s I just hope he is smart with the way it’s used.


disc Held IRL and SM


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LifeCapital
8 months ago

I used to own shares in SEQ, but sold out as Gary Cole had indicated to me in an email that there was likely to be a fair bit of director buying some months ago, when I questioned the very small amount of shares being brought in the company buyback. This never eventuated, so it just seemed a bit fishy to me. I take a lot of notice of what directors do and don't do as they are the ones working in the business daily. Just my observations and I am not saying its is or isn't a good investment and yes does and always has looked cheap.

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