Forum Topics SLC SLC Business Model/Strategy

Pinned straw:

Added 8 months ago

Hi @Bear77 have you been following Superloop lately. I see the latest info released by the ACCC shows…

Aussie Broadband Ltd (ASX: ABB) and Vocus gained almost 62,000 services in the June 2023 quarter, while the total number of residential broadband services on the NBN remained steady.

Vocus grew by over 33,000 services, taking its market share to 7.9%, whereas Aussie Broadband gained over 28,000 services to a 7.5% share.

Superloop Ltd (ASX: SLC) and Southern Phone increased their market shares to 3.1% and 1.4%, respectively.

Telstra and TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPG) saw their collective services decline by almost 76,000 in total during the June quarter. This reduces their respective market shares to 41.5% and 21.7%. Optus' market share was steady at 13.1%.

ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey 


Bear77
8 months ago

Sorry about the late reply @NewbieHK but the answer is that I have NOT been following Superloop (SLC) recently. I HAVE been following Aussie Broadband (ABB) - and have just updated my bull case for them here: ABB - Aussie Broadband Limited - Strawman: ASX share price, valuation, research and discussion

If that takes you to my "Val" instead of the straw, just scroll down and the straw will be below the "valuation". In my case I provide price targets rather than valuations, because I don't have enough confidence in my ability to provide accurate valuations, not least of which because I don't have all of the relevant future data points with a sufficient degree of confidence (that they are accurate), so I'm saying - I think the share price is likely to get to $x, (either up or down, coz sometimes my price targets are below the current price, as they were with SLC when I thought they were significantly overbought) - rather than saying - I think the company is worth $x.

Anyway, I note that my "Val" (Price Target) for SLC was 70 cps (cents/share), when I reviewed them and lowered my PT back on 27-May-2021. They were trading at around 98 cps that day (closed at $0.975) and they were in a short-term uptrend which I thought was unsustainable. I reviewed them again on 24-Aug-2022 when they were trading at 81 cps and in a small uptrend that was part of a larger downtrend, and I thought, Yeah, they're going down to 70cps or lower. They did of course, and they closed just below that level today (at 68.5 cps), however you can cherry pick data to suit you own thesis I guess. They have traded as high as $1.29/share (on 29-Oct-2021) and as low as 56 cps (on 31-Mar-2023) during that period.

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I've added stuff to (modified) that chart, but not the chart data itself, just the info around it, so the numbers are all still historically accurate.

I haven't looked at them (SLC) in any detail since May last year, so I don't have a current view other than that I'm not interested in them at this point. A number of people who left Superloop a couple of years ago (one of the things that gave me some serious concerns about the company) ended up across at Swoop (SWP), and I hold Swoop shares. Swoop have been a terrible investment, however Andrew (Twiggy) Forrest and I still hold our (very different) positions in Swoop, and I still hold Swoop in my SM virtual portfolio here (as well as IRL). Swoop's share price (SP) performance and the TSR (due to the massive SP decline) have both been very unwelcome, however their basic metrics have been heading in the right direction, so I remain of the opinion that they are worth significantly more than their current share price and/or they will be in future years. In Superloop's case, I don't have the same conviction, so I do not hold SLC shares - plus I haven't liked the company (or the way it has been run) for a number of years and there hasn't been anything happen more recently to change my mind.

At the other end of that spectrum we have Aussie Broadband (ABB), which is my pick in the sector, and I hold ABB obviously. They've done well recently.

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I also hold MAQ, which is now Macquarie Technology Group, but was formerly known as Macquarie Telecom, however I regard MAQ as a Data Centre (DC) and Cybersecurity company now, more than a Telco, although they do still also provide Telco services.

One of the things I like to see with smaller and mid-cap companies is decent insider ownership, which tends to provide good shareholder alignment - as in it aligns the interests of the insiders (Board/Management/Founders) with the interests of ordinary retail investors because the insiders are also shareholders and want to generate good TSRs.

MAQ's founders, the Tudehope Brothers - David and Aiden - who are also the company's CEO/ED (David) and Managing Director- Hosting Group (Aiden) own almost half of the entire company (45.19%), being 11,001,123 MAQ shares, via their family holding company, Claiward Pty Ltd. It was 51% before the most recent capital raising in June this year. They haven't been selling down, but they were diluted a little from that A$160 million institutional placement at A$58.50/share to strengthen the Company’s balance sheet and provide funding to pursue growth opportunities in the Company’s data centre portfolio ("Strategically positions Macquarie Technology Group to capitalise on the fast-growing cloud and artificial intelligence megatrends").

Swoop have a similar figure in percentage terms, i.e. almost half of their shares on issue, owned by a collection of insiders and founders, if you include Twiggy's 15.37% (held by Tattarang Ventures) as Twiggy was a cornerstone investor in the Swoop float (IPO). Back in August last year, so just over one year ago, I wrote here (scroll down for the "Management" straw; it's near the end of that one, which is the last straw, no pun intended) that:

Swoop's largest shareholder was (still is) Tattarang Ventures, the private family investment company of Andrew (Twiggy) Forrest, best known for building up Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) from nothing to now be one of the 4 largest iron ore producers in the world, and Australia's third largest (behind RIO & BHP). Twiggy is also heavily involved in philanthropy and investments in food, land and a handful of start-ups, of which Swoop was one. If you add Tattarang Ventures' 16.25%, to the 25% of Swoop owned by their 5 board members, to the 6.36% owned by Nick Van Namen's N & J Enterprises (WA) Ltd, that's 47.6% of the company accounted for, as at mid-August 2022

--- end of straw excerpt ---

Nick Van Namen was the co-founder of NodeOne and N1 Wholesale (originally started in Geraldton, WA), and Nick was also a director and CTO (Chief Technology Officer) of NodeOne, which was acquired by Swoop - and Swoop shares were used as part of the settlement for that acquisition. I don't think Nick works for Swoop now; he is busy with another start-up I reckon. Interestingly, Nick's Swoop holding - through N & J Enterprises (WA) Ltd - is still 6.36%, however Tattarang now own 15.37% (down from 16.25%) even though they haven't lodged anything to suggest a sell-down. Mind you, they don't need to do that unless it's a 1% movement, and the reduction has been only -0.88% (of the Swoop shares on issue) and that minor dilution appears to have been due to the exercise of options and/or management performance rights. All of the Swoop Board members either have the same positions in percentage terms or they have increased their exposure in the case of James Spenceley, their main founder and their Board Chairman (was 4.66%, now 5.94%) and Tony Grist, who has been buying on-market from 43 cps all the way down to 20 cps and has increased his holdings (through Oaktone Nominees and Denlin Nominees) to 6.88% (up from 6.2% one year ago). Tony now holds over 14 million Swoop shares through Oaktone and Denlin. Another director, William (Paul) Reid, owns even more; 22.7m Swoop shares are held by Paul's company, Lygon Way Pty Ltd, which is 11.03% of the shares on issue and makes Paul Reid their second largest shareholder after Twiggy (Tattarang). The company has also had an active share buyback in place.

Almost 50% of the current Swoop shares on issue are owned by either Twiggy, Nick Van Namen or the Swoop Board members, and then there's the other Swoop management who are not on their Board where some may hold sub-5% positions that we don't know about.

Moving on to ABB - here's what the ABB Board members hold:

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Phil Britt, their MD, has just sold some shares (see here: Director-Share-Sale.PDF) but still holds 6.5% of the ABB shares on issue, and all of the ABB directors do also have skin in the game to varying degrees.

Compare that to Superloop:

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One holds none, and the rest hold bugger all. Remember that this company has a sub-$1 share price. The director who holds the most shares, Vivian Stewart, with 599,243 shares (when you add her direct and indirect holdings together) holds 0.12% of the company (worth just $410,481 at today's closing price), so just over one tenth of 1% of the company. The personal direct and indirect holdings of the entire SLC Board all added together (1,690,315 SLC shares) represents 0.34% of the company, so around one third of 1%. The company's founder, Bevan Slattery, has sold out and has no economic interest in the company any more. There's bugger-all in the way of shareholder alignment there with SLC in my opinion.

And that's just one of the reasons I don't like them.

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Bear77
7 months ago

Just to "briefly" add to my forum post there on SLC from earlier tonight...

Here's the timeline of the Bevan Slattery exit from Superloop (SLC):

28 October 2021: Final-Director's-Interest-Notices-BS-SLC.PDF [BS resigns as Executive Chairman of SLC, so resigns from the company and the Board, still holding 60,933,774 fully paid ordinary shares in Superloop Limited (under his own name: Bevan Andrew Slattery). That was around 12.4% of the company at the time.

28 July 2022: Change-in-substantial-holding-BS-28July2022.PDF [Better late than never: BS alerts the ASX that his SLC holdings had reduced from 17.60% on 05-Nov-2019 down to 13.22% on 27-Oct-2020 due to selling at 92 cps and a lesser amount of buying at 89 cps. There was also disclosure that some shares that had been previously listed as indirectly held by BS via Capital B Trust were actually held in his own name rather than by the Trust, and that the Slattery Family Trust had changed their corporate trustee but that the same number of shares were still held by the trust.]

24 October 2022: Change-in-substantial-holding-BS-24Oct2022.PDF [BS discloses that his 13.22% of SLC had now reduced to 8.45% due to sells at prices ranging from 85 cps down to 70 cps, with the biggest trade being 20 million SLC shares sold by Bevan on 24-Oct-2022 (on-market) @ 73 cps. There were 17 different trades detailed, and they were all sells. That 8.45% of SLC that he ended up owning as at close of trade on 24-Oct-2022 was 40,839,582 SLC shares.]

04 November 2022: Ceasing-to-be-a-substantial-holder-BS-04Nov2022.PDF [BS discloses that he has sold all 40,839,582 SLC shares that he held at that date - being 8.45% of SLC - at 70 cps "under a structured option and loan facility" - leaving him with zero SLC shares and no role at the company he founded.]

It's not the only company he's founded of course. Bevan also founded NextDC (NXT); Bevan left NXT 10 years ago (in late 2013) and no longer holds any NXT shares either.

Coincidentally, on that same day (04-Nov-2022) that Bevan sold all of his remaining 40.84m SLC shares, ARGO Investments (ARG) bought $3.6m worth of SLC shares at 70 cps (5,142,857 SLC shares) - Becoming-a-substantial-holder-from-ARG-04Nov2022.PDF and Regal Funds Management bought another 13,045,831 SLC shares at 70 cps - Change-in-substantial-holding-Regal-04Nov2022.PDF increasing their position from 9.15% to 11.55% of SLC.


Bevan is out. According to Commsec, the largest shareholders in SLC currently are:


NAME (SHARE HOLDING) SHARES HELD (%)

J P Morgan Nominees Australia Pty Limited (86,019,908 shares) 17.73%

National Nominees Limited (59,100,419) 12.18%

Regal Funds Management Pty Ltd (13,045,831) 11.55%

Perennial Value Management Limited (6,002,149) 10.59%

Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited (49,486,392) 10.20%

HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited (28,740,119) 5.92%

Argo Investments Limited (27,684,033) 5.59%

Bank of America Corporation and its related bodies corporate (5,941,329) 5.44%


Of those 8 Subs, the most recent notices from JPM, Perennial and BoA were "Sells", and the most recent notices from Argo and Regal were "Buys". The remaining 3, being HSBC Custody Nominees, Citicorp Nominees and National Nominees are longer term holders and all three are custodians of the shares for other parties. "Investopedia" says that a nominee is a person or firm whose name is titled on securities or other property to facilitate certain transactions or transfers while leaving the original customer as the actual or legal owner. In this way, a nominee can serve as a custodian. A nominee account is a type of account in which a stockbroker holds shares belonging to clients, making buying and selling those shares easier and for safekeeping. In such an arrangement, shares are said to be held in street name. HSBC, Citicorp and National could all be holding those shares for a single person or entity, or more likely a number of parties, and they are only required to notify the ASX when the percentage of SLC that they hold changes by 1% or more.

Still no evidence there of any decent "insider ownership" at Superloop.

I just thought I'd add this because in my "Valuation" for SLC, I had previously stated that Bevan was still there and was still a Sub. That was true at the time (in August 2020) although he clearly didn't hold the 24% that Commsec's data said he did - because that 28 July 22 disclosure from Bevan (link above) showed that he had sold down to 13.22% by October 2020, and had only held 17.6% back on 05-Nov-2019. And he holds 0% now. I'll update my "Val" now with that data.

Further Reading: https://www.megaport.com/investor/leadership-governance/

Megaport founder Bevan Slattery dumps more shares (afr.com) [Sep 5, 2023 – 4.25pm]

Bevan Slattery green lights Sydney to Perth undersea cable (afr.com) [Aug 24, 2023 – 12.07pm]

MP1: Megaport jumps 16pc after losses narrow, cost cuts (afr.com) [Aug 22, 2023 – 4.43pm]

How a frenzied bidding war started for a broke HR software firm [AFR, Updated May 17, 2023 – 7.31pm, first published May 15, 2023 – 10.51am] [Bevan Slattery was an investor in IntelliHR, the subject of this story and he's mentioned in the story]

Superloop, Aurecon, RM Williams, Endeavour Energy win AFR Digital Transformation Awards for technology [Sep 13, 2023 – 5.00am]

Optus and TPG struggle for public sympathy in big tech battle (afr.com) [Aug 21, 2023 – 4.50pm]

ASX 200 slammed for a saturation of red tape, as tech founder Bevan Slattery says he wouldn’t list on the shrinking market again (afr.com) [Jun 8, 2023 – 3.59pm]

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Bevan Slattery: “The increase in overhead in running an ASX company compared to 2005 is extraordinary.” Louie Douvis


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NewbieHK
7 months ago

Thanks @Bear77. I appreciate the extensive in-depth review of the area. It’s a competitive arena with ABB seeming to be the next major player. There is always a temptation to jump on a small player.

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