Pinned straw:
Sorry about the late reply @NewbieHK but the answer is that I have NOT been following Superloop (SLC) recently. I HAVE been following Aussie Broadband (ABB) - and have just updated my bull case for them here: ABB - Aussie Broadband Limited - Strawman: ASX share price, valuation, research and discussion
If that takes you to my "Val" instead of the straw, just scroll down and the straw will be below the "valuation". In my case I provide price targets rather than valuations, because I don't have enough confidence in my ability to provide accurate valuations, not least of which because I don't have all of the relevant future data points with a sufficient degree of confidence (that they are accurate), so I'm saying - I think the share price is likely to get to $x, (either up or down, coz sometimes my price targets are below the current price, as they were with SLC when I thought they were significantly overbought) - rather than saying - I think the company is worth $x.
Anyway, I note that my "Val" (Price Target) for SLC was 70 cps (cents/share), when I reviewed them and lowered my PT back on 27-May-2021. They were trading at around 98 cps that day (closed at $0.975) and they were in a short-term uptrend which I thought was unsustainable. I reviewed them again on 24-Aug-2022 when they were trading at 81 cps and in a small uptrend that was part of a larger downtrend, and I thought, Yeah, they're going down to 70cps or lower. They did of course, and they closed just below that level today (at 68.5 cps), however you can cherry pick data to suit you own thesis I guess. They have traded as high as $1.29/share (on 29-Oct-2021) and as low as 56 cps (on 31-Mar-2023) during that period.
I've added stuff to (modified) that chart, but not the chart data itself, just the info around it, so the numbers are all still historically accurate.
I haven't looked at them (SLC) in any detail since May last year, so I don't have a current view other than that I'm not interested in them at this point. A number of people who left Superloop a couple of years ago (one of the things that gave me some serious concerns about the company) ended up across at Swoop (SWP), and I hold Swoop shares. Swoop have been a terrible investment, however Andrew (Twiggy) Forrest and I still hold our (very different) positions in Swoop, and I still hold Swoop in my SM virtual portfolio here (as well as IRL). Swoop's share price (SP) performance and the TSR (due to the massive SP decline) have both been very unwelcome, however their basic metrics have been heading in the right direction, so I remain of the opinion that they are worth significantly more than their current share price and/or they will be in future years. In Superloop's case, I don't have the same conviction, so I do not hold SLC shares - plus I haven't liked the company (or the way it has been run) for a number of years and there hasn't been anything happen more recently to change my mind.
At the other end of that spectrum we have Aussie Broadband (ABB), which is my pick in the sector, and I hold ABB obviously. They've done well recently.
I also hold MAQ, which is now Macquarie Technology Group, but was formerly known as Macquarie Telecom, however I regard MAQ as a Data Centre (DC) and Cybersecurity company now, more than a Telco, although they do still also provide Telco services.
One of the things I like to see with smaller and mid-cap companies is decent insider ownership, which tends to provide good shareholder alignment - as in it aligns the interests of the insiders (Board/Management/Founders) with the interests of ordinary retail investors because the insiders are also shareholders and want to generate good TSRs.
MAQ's founders, the Tudehope Brothers - David and Aiden - who are also the company's CEO/ED (David) and Managing Director- Hosting Group (Aiden) own almost half of the entire company (45.19%), being 11,001,123 MAQ shares, via their family holding company, Claiward Pty Ltd. It was 51% before the most recent capital raising in June this year. They haven't been selling down, but they were diluted a little from that A$160 million institutional placement at A$58.50/share to strengthen the Company’s balance sheet and provide funding to pursue growth opportunities in the Company’s data centre portfolio ("Strategically positions Macquarie Technology Group to capitalise on the fast-growing cloud and artificial intelligence megatrends").
Swoop have a similar figure in percentage terms, i.e. almost half of their shares on issue, owned by a collection of insiders and founders, if you include Twiggy's 15.37% (held by Tattarang Ventures) as Twiggy was a cornerstone investor in the Swoop float (IPO). Back in August last year, so just over one year ago, I wrote here (scroll down for the "Management" straw; it's near the end of that one, which is the last straw, no pun intended) that:
Swoop's largest shareholder was (still is) Tattarang Ventures, the private family investment company of Andrew (Twiggy) Forrest, best known for building up Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) from nothing to now be one of the 4 largest iron ore producers in the world, and Australia's third largest (behind RIO & BHP). Twiggy is also heavily involved in philanthropy and investments in food, land and a handful of start-ups, of which Swoop was one. If you add Tattarang Ventures' 16.25%, to the 25% of Swoop owned by their 5 board members, to the 6.36% owned by Nick Van Namen's N & J Enterprises (WA) Ltd, that's 47.6% of the company accounted for, as at mid-August 2022
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Nick Van Namen was the co-founder of NodeOne and N1 Wholesale (originally started in Geraldton, WA), and Nick was also a director and CTO (Chief Technology Officer) of NodeOne, which was acquired by Swoop - and Swoop shares were used as part of the settlement for that acquisition. I don't think Nick works for Swoop now; he is busy with another start-up I reckon. Interestingly, Nick's Swoop holding - through N & J Enterprises (WA) Ltd - is still 6.36%, however Tattarang now own 15.37% (down from 16.25%) even though they haven't lodged anything to suggest a sell-down. Mind you, they don't need to do that unless it's a 1% movement, and the reduction has been only -0.88% (of the Swoop shares on issue) and that minor dilution appears to have been due to the exercise of options and/or management performance rights. All of the Swoop Board members either have the same positions in percentage terms or they have increased their exposure in the case of James Spenceley, their main founder and their Board Chairman (was 4.66%, now 5.94%) and Tony Grist, who has been buying on-market from 43 cps all the way down to 20 cps and has increased his holdings (through Oaktone Nominees and Denlin Nominees) to 6.88% (up from 6.2% one year ago). Tony now holds over 14 million Swoop shares through Oaktone and Denlin. Another director, William (Paul) Reid, owns even more; 22.7m Swoop shares are held by Paul's company, Lygon Way Pty Ltd, which is 11.03% of the shares on issue and makes Paul Reid their second largest shareholder after Twiggy (Tattarang). The company has also had an active share buyback in place.
Almost 50% of the current Swoop shares on issue are owned by either Twiggy, Nick Van Namen or the Swoop Board members, and then there's the other Swoop management who are not on their Board where some may hold sub-5% positions that we don't know about.
Moving on to ABB - here's what the ABB Board members hold:
Phil Britt, their MD, has just sold some shares (see here: Director-Share-Sale.PDF) but still holds 6.5% of the ABB shares on issue, and all of the ABB directors do also have skin in the game to varying degrees.
Compare that to Superloop:
One holds none, and the rest hold bugger all. Remember that this company has a sub-$1 share price. The director who holds the most shares, Vivian Stewart, with 599,243 shares (when you add her direct and indirect holdings together) holds 0.12% of the company (worth just $410,481 at today's closing price), so just over one tenth of 1% of the company. The personal direct and indirect holdings of the entire SLC Board all added together (1,690,315 SLC shares) represents 0.34% of the company, so around one third of 1%. The company's founder, Bevan Slattery, has sold out and has no economic interest in the company any more. There's bugger-all in the way of shareholder alignment there with SLC in my opinion.
And that's just one of the reasons I don't like them.