Forum Topics XF1 XF1 Thesis being tested

Pinned straw:

Last edited 7 months ago

Urgh...what do you do when your favourite fast-growing microcap stubbornly refuses to grow?

XRef's FY23 results were nothing short of underwhelming. After initially guiding to a small profit, they later downgraded that to a loss, which ended up being a greater than I expected $(3.4)m loss. What made this worse was they capitalised $2.5m in development costs, most of which appears to be headcount that will be ongoing (opex or capex - doesn't really matter). This resulted in their traditional strength - strong free cash flow - being an outflow of more than $2m. Add in the acquisition of Voice Project and other costs, the overall cash outflow was $4.8m. One thing I didn't think I'd be saying about them was that the balance sheet was looking stressed, but with that level of outflow it is now the case that you need to think about the balance sheet carefully.

It wasn't all doom and gloom. Voice Project (now XRef Engage) delivered $1.8m revenue since January 2023 and what's really impressive added 57 clients to the existing 212 they had at acquisition. That 27% increase in just 6 months demonstrates how valuable the opportunity to cross-sell a premium product to XRef's existing 1300 customer base is. Annualising that and assuming a similar level of growth (but let's say over 12 months rather than 6), would result in Voice Project providing a really meaningful contribution to XRef in FY24. If Voice Project's founder were here right now I'd be shaking his hand because without him things really would be bleak!

Also, while organically XRef's revenue was basically flat year on year, the quality of their revenue has increased. Since rolling out the subscription model in October 2022, ARR has grown to $5.5m as at 30 Jun. That's actually reasonably impressive given that they didn't have Pulse Surveys as part of the platform until May and so were selling the Hire to Retire story without a big chunk of value in the middle. It's conceivable that ARR could represent half their revenue by the end FY24.

Having said that, you can't ignore one of their key disclosures - that the investment in headcount is expected to result in employee costs of $16m in FY24 (it was $11.8m plus whatever they capitalised in FY23). That's a big gap to fill in addition to the $3.4m loss before you even break even.

So back to the original question, what do you do when your favourite fast-growing microcap stubbornly refuses to grow? I can't tell you what you should do but I lightened on the result and belatedly reflected that in SM early this week. Hopefully I get to regret it.


mikebrisy
7 months ago

@Noddy74 on Friday I answered that very same question for myself. Ultimately, it comes down to what you believe the future holds, the basis for that belief, and the strength of your conviction.

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edgescape
3 months ago

For the novices out there like myself, I think this is the line showing the capitalised development cost

Apologies if I'm digging an old update, but I'm posting this for my own learning reference and everyone else hopefully.

Find it interesting that software development can be recognised like this.

There's more interesting notes in the auditor report.

294b7f34f73acd651c326f392c9f5a05ee2f8c.png

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Noddy74
3 months ago

Yes, you're right @edgescape - that is where capitalised development costs get shown. A couple of points though. One is that 'intangibles' covers all manner of evils. Goodwill acquired in a business combination is, for instance, an intangible asset. Sometimes it gets shown on the balance sheet as a separate line item, but sometimes it doesn't and you have to go into the Notes to see the breakdown. In this case, though, I think it's fair to assume the line you have highlighted are capitalised development costs.

It's fairly standard practice for companies to (a) capitalise a portion of these costs, and (b) show this as an investing activity in the cash flow statement. There are exceptions though. Some companies adopt a fairly 'conservative' policy of expensing all these costs as they occur (GLH is currently doing so).

A rough rule of thumb is cash flows from investing activities represents spend that is likely to produce benefits in multiple future years. When you incur that type of spend the accounting standards suggest that you should capitalise these costs, and then amortise over time. Auditors will generally argue the strict letter of the law and say you should be capitalising. But for those companies that want the simplicity of expensing the costs and showing them as cash flows from operating activities, there are ways to argue your case (e.g. insufficient ability to estimate when the benefit will accrue etc.).

When I'm calculating Free Cash Flow I will generally deduct intangible spend (and PP&E and leases) so it becomes a moot point where it gets shown.

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Solvetheriddle
3 months ago

@Noddy74 what you say is absolutely correct, however, there is possibly a query about management's intention in carrying out this policy. the banks ran up huge capitalised software, then surprise surprise wrote it off as abnormal years later. therefore overstated previous earnings. i get weary of people doing this especially when STI or capital raisings are in the firing line, sometimes it is benign TNE?? maybe/hopefully

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UlladullaDave
3 months ago

The thing to really look out for is when a company is capitalising development costs but also is frequently taking impairment expenses on that asset. Australia is relatively loose on allowing development costs to be capitalised. It's very uncommon in the US because it is so prone to fudging to make EBITDA look better. That rules around capitalising development costs are that you have to have a viable product that is likely to deliver "future economic benefits" to the company and you have a clear sight to getting the product to market. There is probably too much grey.

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