Urgh...what do you do when your favourite fast-growing microcap stubbornly refuses to grow?
XRef's FY23 results were nothing short of underwhelming. After initially guiding to a small profit, they later downgraded that to a loss, which ended up being a greater than I expected $(3.4)m loss. What made this worse was they capitalised $2.5m in development costs, most of which appears to be headcount that will be ongoing (opex or capex - doesn't really matter). This resulted in their traditional strength - strong free cash flow - being an outflow of more than $2m. Add in the acquisition of Voice Project and other costs, the overall cash outflow was $4.8m. One thing I didn't think I'd be saying about them was that the balance sheet was looking stressed, but with that level of outflow it is now the case that you need to think about the balance sheet carefully.
It wasn't all doom and gloom. Voice Project (now XRef Engage) delivered $1.8m revenue since January 2023 and what's really impressive added 57 clients to the existing 212 they had at acquisition. That 27% increase in just 6 months demonstrates how valuable the opportunity to cross-sell a premium product to XRef's existing 1300 customer base is. Annualising that and assuming a similar level of growth (but let's say over 12 months rather than 6), would result in Voice Project providing a really meaningful contribution to XRef in FY24. If Voice Project's founder were here right now I'd be shaking his hand because without him things really would be bleak!
Also, while organically XRef's revenue was basically flat year on year, the quality of their revenue has increased. Since rolling out the subscription model in October 2022, ARR has grown to $5.5m as at 30 Jun. That's actually reasonably impressive given that they didn't have Pulse Surveys as part of the platform until May and so were selling the Hire to Retire story without a big chunk of value in the middle. It's conceivable that ARR could represent half their revenue by the end FY24.
Having said that, you can't ignore one of their key disclosures - that the investment in headcount is expected to result in employee costs of $16m in FY24 (it was $11.8m plus whatever they capitalised in FY23). That's a big gap to fill in addition to the $3.4m loss before you even break even.
So back to the original question, what do you do when your favourite fast-growing microcap stubbornly refuses to grow? I can't tell you what you should do but I lightened on the result and belatedly reflected that in SM early this week. Hopefully I get to regret it.