Pinned straw:
Comparing GMROI between MXI and SGI and it seems clear to me that SGI is doing something right wrt working cap/inventory management.
Do they hold stock on consignment? I'm trying to understand how a business can have 200k SKUs in stock with only ~$15m in inventory on their books.
The bear case on a cyclical business with razor thin margins is just that. I know they talk up the non-discretionary nature of the products they distribute, but that network and the thin margins it produces need a lot of product flowing through it. Even a modest decline in revenue and asset utilisation/inventory turns will make this business look pretty ordinary.
That being said, when operating leverage is your tailwind...
@edgescape It is a good question, but its one I doubt we'll ever get an answer to.
To succeed, their core capability is inventory management and having the systems including predictive analytics to buy the right SKUs, in the right volumes, and get them to the right location.
I am happy to own and monitor such a business purely on the aggregate numbers:
My investment strategy for this one is simple. A) Start with a small position B) Add to it based on evidence of progress in above points C) Rinse and repeat.
When I'd sell: Evidence of inability to make progress over multiple periods on above metrics (benchmarked to other listed companies in the sector)
Complication: Acquisitions will muddy the water from time to time, but as long as the deals are bite-sized, it should be possible to make corrections for this. (The market often gets this wrong, so that can provide buying opportunities.)