Forum Topics SGI SGI Industry/competitors

Pinned straw:

Added 7 months ago

Now that I have a bit of time today I thought I'd go through this one and play Devil's advocate.

My question is has anyone asked what sells and doesn't sell?

Or what segments are performing well and which ones aren't?

Seems a very diverse range of products but there is not much info on what is doing well and what isn't.

This is what is holding me back from Stealth at the moment when I was doing a comparison with Maxiparts.

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UlladullaDave
7 months ago

Comparing GMROI between MXI and SGI and it seems clear to me that SGI is doing something right wrt working cap/inventory management.

Do they hold stock on consignment? I'm trying to understand how a business can have 200k SKUs in stock with only ~$15m in inventory on their books.

The bear case on a cyclical business with razor thin margins is just that. I know they talk up the non-discretionary nature of the products they distribute, but that network and the thin margins it produces need a lot of product flowing through it. Even a modest decline in revenue and asset utilisation/inventory turns will make this business look pretty ordinary.

That being said, when operating leverage is your tailwind...

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mikebrisy
7 months ago

@UlladullaDave such a great data-driven question! It does seem incredible.

Perhaps for some lines they've structured the supply chain so title transfers direct from supplier to their partners, so it never sits on their balance sheet? Perhaps also, as you say, some is on consignment. My guess a mix of both. Unless all 200,000 SKUs are not truly "in stock", and some are in the catalogue, but "to order" only. But if that's true then their investor communications are misleading, which I'd prefer to think not.

Definitely need to remember that one for the next Strawman Meeting!

Maths: $15m inventory/ 200,000 skus = $75 / SKU average.

Or maybe there are a large number of very, very low value SKUs skewing the stats? (e.g. Zenith M6 Hot Dipped Galvanised Washer $0.12 ... from the Bunnings site!)

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mikebrisy
7 months ago

I think GMROI is so high at $SGI because of the partner network.

The inventory spends the lion's share of the time on the partners' balance sheets, so $SGI have higher inventory turns and lower inventory/sales because they are a distributor with a relatively low proportion of total volumes ending up in their own stores.

So they have this edge over $MXI, $SNL and $BAP ,.... just picking on the vehicles category, because it has several listed companies.

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UlladullaDave
7 months ago

Cheers @mikebrisy

That definitely helps explain GMROI and the low inventory level. If they can move a lot of the inventory investment on to their partners it is going to make incremental ROIC at scale blow those other guys out of the water. Not saying they will get there, just that the structure is quite interesting. You don't often find distribution businesses with that sort of "float" for want of a better word.

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edgescape
7 months ago

This claim of "non-discretionary" vs discretionary products is actually what I was pointing to in my initial question.

Point about the consignment - sounds a bit like dropshipping.

It's good how they list the number of B2B and retail customers on their website though.

It's interesting that everyone is now including MXI as a comparison. I only raised it because the change in management seems to be working.

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DrPete
7 months ago

@mikebrisy and @UlladullaDave, good questions re SKUs and inventory levels. Similar to Mike's explanation of GMROI, my guess is that the partner network of independent stores holds many of the SKUs, but that inventory doesn't show on Stealth's books. In their latest investor presentation the reference to >200k products in stock sits on a slide discussing their distribution network which includes their own stores as well as the independent stores they supply in the ISG group.

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mikebrisy
7 months ago

@edgescape It is a good question, but its one I doubt we'll ever get an answer to.

To succeed, their core capability is inventory management and having the systems including predictive analytics to buy the right SKUs, in the right volumes, and get them to the right location.

I am happy to own and monitor such a business purely on the aggregate numbers:

  • As volumes increase, %GM should increase on improve buying power
  • As they introduce new products under white label, %GM should increase
  • As scale increases, CoDB / Revenue should fall
  • Adding new partner stores to the network, indicates they are adding value to the partner, and therefore are competitive (defections the opposite)
  • We can track inventory turns via 6-month reports in the account. Its a key measure
  • Overall %Operating Margin should improve over time with scale
  • ROE should improve similarly


My investment strategy for this one is simple. A) Start with a small position B) Add to it based on evidence of progress in above points C) Rinse and repeat.

When I'd sell: Evidence of inability to make progress over multiple periods on above metrics (benchmarked to other listed companies in the sector)

Complication: Acquisitions will muddy the water from time to time, but as long as the deals are bite-sized, it should be possible to make corrections for this. (The market often gets this wrong, so that can provide buying opportunities.)

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edgescape
7 months ago

Sounds pretty reasonable criteria.

For me it would be reassuring if they had a general idea of group performance rather than specific items as that would be too much.

But it is probably a picky question from me given I don't have much knowledge of how these businesses work.

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DrPete
7 months ago

@edgescape, it may not be at the detail you're after (it won't tell you which adhesive or work boots are the most popular, or which sells more than the other), but there's some breakdown of product segments in their annual report: https://stealthgi.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/2600895.pdf.

Page 17 shows revenue breakdowns across product category, division, end market and region. Eg, selling industrial products (maintenance, repair, materials, construction equipment, tools) to the mining industry in WA is still their biggest source of revenue.

Page 53 shows the revenues, costs, and captial across B2B and B2C segments. B2B is about 10x B2C revenue, but it's interesting that the financials are very similar both segments (operating profit, assets, liabilities).

And a stat I find really interesting is the growth of their "services" revenue. See p 54. Over 70% growth from $5.8m to $10.3m in the last year. I asked Mike what this was at a recent investor briefing and it is related again to the independent store network. This is the revenue gained by Stealth facilitating bulk purchasing between significant suppliers and independent stores. Mike sees another $60m in growth here in the next 2 or 3 years. This is a big part of the strategy to hit their $200m revenue by FY25. I'm not assuming the $60m will be realised, but this is a big strategic focus for them.

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