Pinned straw:
The Good:
- Fourth quarter of positive operating cash flow. As it is unlikely that VHT will increase operating expenses too much further in H2, Volpara should be able to maintain this for the remainder of the year and report a profit for FY24.
- Not in the report but @mikebrisy e reported NRR is at 112% which is up on 111% in Q1
- Increases to CARR (4.4% QoQ), ARR (4.7% QoQ) & APRA (3.5%)
- Cash levels now at $NZ 13.2m
The Not So Good:
- CARR to ARR gap is continuing to widen as go live looks to be limited by resources. Volpara may have to watch this as potential extended timelines may be negatives for some customers? The difference may also highlight potential money still sitting on the table.
Watch Status:
What To Watch:
- BreastScreen Australia position on density reporting
- Outcome of BreastScreen QLD density reporting trials. Looks like the trial will end around March 24 (Carried over).
- BAC detection model progress (Carried Over)
- Quiver update at RSNA in November (Carried Over). Due out in CY25.
- Estimating ~ NZ$40m of revenue for FY24 (My current forecast based on CARR). This would be a reduction to ~14% growth (constant currency) vs the 20% for FY23. (Carried Over)
Slew
@Bradbury Following on from what to watch, “BreastScreen Australia position on density reporting”
Aust review into Breast screening due end 2024
Email from Breast Screen Victoria, rec’d Fri 27/10/23
“This morning, Federal Minister for Health and Aged Care, the Hon Mark Butler, released the outcomes of the Roadmap to Optimising Screening in Australia (ROSA) project and announced the BreastScreen National Policy and Funding Review.
The ROSA Project was a four-year initiative delivered by Cancer Council Australia and funded by the Federal Government. It considered the evidence and options for more risk-based and personalised approaches to breast cancer screening in Australia, before submitting recommendations including how BreastScreen could best prepare for the system-level changes required.
In line with the ROSA project's recommendations, the Australian Federal Government, with support from the State and Territory Governments, will now undertake a broader Policy and Funding Review of the BreastScreen Australia program with a focus on three workstreams:
- Policy to ensure BreastScreen Australia’s national policy is the very best model and informed by the latest evidence. Factors considered will include the age range, screening technology, screening interval, risk factors such as breast density, and risk-based screening approaches.
- Quality and safety mechanisms, including the accreditation system, in light of the latest evidence and standard setting techniques.
- Funding to develop a contemporary funding model for the program that can support future evidence-based changes.
The Review will inform the future strategic direction of the BreastScreen Australia program by developing recommendations for evidence-based best practice, national consistency and a sustainable increase in program participation rates. It is expected to be completed by the end of 2024.
This announcement marks the start of an exciting time for the BreastScreen program.
BreastScreen Victoria CEO, Rita Butera, is enthusiastic about the Review.
“We welcome the BreastScreen Australia Review and will be assisting the process in any way we can,” Rita said.
An Expert Advisory Group will support the review, alongside public consultation including under-screened communities such as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and culturally and linguistically diverse groups. The Department of Health and Aged Care will update the BreastScreen Australia website with details on public participation as the Review progresses.
If you would like to learn more about the BreastScreen Australia Review, visit the Department of Health and Aged Care website.
To receive regular updates on the progress of the Review, including future consultation opportunities, you can join the Partner Reference Group by emailing BreastScreenReviewPRG@health.gov.au.”
Review is sometime away but could potentially add to the long-term tailwinds for VHT, density and risk management mentioned. Noted though, the market size & revenue opportunity here is small compared to the US.
mikebrisy
@Bradbury good report. Only, I don’t think they’ll hit positive earnings in FY24 as there is quite an amortisation load from the acquired goodwill. You can see it in the accounts and Craig said as much in Q&A. But, hey, cash is king! FY25 for positive earnings….my projection not theirs, to be clear.
Agree your point on continued cost focus. Teri is going to stay focused on controlling costs and has a few things she wants the team to do to apply learnings from her days at EPIC - she’s made great progress in 18 months, but feels there if further to go. They are hiring a few more sales and marketing heads in the US this year, so there will be some cost growth.