Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited

ASX:NEU

Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited

ASX:NEU
TradeAdd trade order Follow Unfollow Set Price Alert
$19.70 (+2.7%)
Last close price
#9
Rank
35
Held by
42
Followers
TradeAdd trade order Follow Unfollow Set Price Alert
Reports (2) My Report Forum Investors
Forum Topics NEU NEU #News

Pinned straw:
Nnyck777
Added 6 months ago

Big pharma actively moving back into neuroscience drugs. Stars are aligning for Neuren if there is upcoming success in a few weeks for Phase II Phelan-Mcdermid study. A lot of eyes will be watching NNz2591.


https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/bristol-myers-neuroscience-cns-reserach-ken-rhodes/698062/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202023-10-27%20BioPharma%20Dive%20%5Bissue:55879%5D&utm_term=BioPharma%20Dive
mikebrisy
6 months ago

@Nnyck777 while on the subject of $NEU, I am a little surprised at recent SP action (and yes, I have heard about the bond market).

If you analyse the 5-yr VA framework contract, which has had little press but is the real thing, extrapolate it across the US with a reasonable build profile, you get some of the numbers we were modelling earlier this year. In fact almost bang on my central case. Plus $ACAD have indicated EU and Japan timelines in line with my central case too.

Oh well, patience is a virtue. $ACAD quarterly and updated forecast only a few days away. I am wondering if I have enough exposure to this one. But confidence always takes a hit when bond rates smash even quality growth. (That said, I have been quietly selling the index and accumulating $CSL, $WTC, $ALU and, yes, even more $PNV in RL,… the latter not being quality growth … yet.)

17
Nnyck777
6 months ago

Hi@mikebrisy I agree this is being utterly missed. Models hold. Scuttle but of life changing success of the drug is reassuring.

I am putting alL my super payments solely into NEU. Plugging away week in, week out. The share price depreciation has been a gift.

I considered taking out a personal loan to buy more shares before the NNZ 2591 December catalyst. But given the state of the world I have chickened out.

I too am squirreling every paycheck into NEU, PNV ( sold a huge holding to buy more NEU).

I sold my CSL at $300 ish a while back as it was utterly underperforming and thought the price would re-treat. One of my few accurate timing calls.

I am sitting on 3DP hoping for a miracle. I appreciated my chat with other Strawman members on this stock. I will be watching for Ian’s cynicism in the next Strawman interview.

I still hold a huge chunk of BOT. I have had to re_treat and still myself yet again after the disappointment of the FDA delay. I have never learnt more about myself and my convictions before from any other stock. I am holding here too hoping for a Class A meeting and a speedy approval.

F$&@k investing is hard!

15
mikebrisy
6 months ago

@Nnyck777 $ACAD report's its quarterly in New York at 7:30am AEST Friday. We'll see how Daybue sales are tracking against guidance and get guidance for the Q ahead.

Given that VA disclosed contract indicates the US health complex is mobilsing to reimburse and other updates have been positive, I have decided to take a slightly bigger nibble in RL and also updated SM holding.

Of course, as you've pointed out the big SP catalyst is NNZ2591 first readout in just over a month. I agree the industry will be watching. If news is positive and SP doesn't move significantly, this would have to be a juicy M&A target. So even anticipation of that could be a catalyst.

Given the low SP, I don't think there is far to fall on a neutral or negative NNZ2591 if Daybue sales are half decent. A few permutations and combinations to think through, so I remain cautious compared to you, but that probably is just my lower risk appetite.

If $ACAD Daybue results are particularly strong (i.e., beat upper limit of guidance with a storng growth into the next Q compared to my model), then I'll have my finger on the "buy" at the open on Friday depending on what the ASX order book looks like, as there might be an opportunity to get it cheap ahead of analyst notes. (Getting a few steps ahead of myself here.)

12