Forum Topics SGI SGI Financials

Pinned straw:

Added 12 months ago

This may be something to keep an eye on when Stealth report next and could be a concern. There was a major change in their trade and other receivable's vs trade and other payable on their balance sheet in FY23 vs FY 22.

In FY 22 accounts receivables were $18m vs accounts payables of 18.6m, a $600k difference

In FY23 accounts receivables were $17m vs accounts payables of $21m, a $4m difference.

So they owed $4m more than what they were due to receive at financial year end. This would have skewed the cashflow to the positive when taking into account the money owed versus what is due.

Just something I am watching.

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wtsimis
Added 12 months ago

Great pick up @LifeCapital. Will be something to watch at the half and coming full year.

Following on from FCF examination which for the full year 2023 was 5.6m interesting the H1 of 2023 was 1.2m.

The second half was a significant improvement resulting in 4.4m FCF.

I am anticipating 2024 FCF to come in at 7million which down on the second half run rate when annualised to 8.8m.

At 7million FCF and Market cap 24m Stealth Valuation would come in at 3.14.

Reasonable indeed.

Further upside is the intention to pay a dividend in the range of 30-40% FCF.

At 30% of 7million FCF = 2.1million or 2.1c dividend.

At 24c = 8.75% yield

Look forward to this Friday (25th Nov ) AGM to get a update on progress and business conditions.

Disc. Hold in RL and SM

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Hackofalltrades
Added 12 months ago

Forgive me for being dumb, but what is the risk here? Is it that it creates a cashflow problem in the future?

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Strawman
Added 12 months ago

I think it's just that you can boost cashflow and cash balance over a specific period by delaying the payment of your bills. Not suggesting anything nefarious, probably just a timing issue, but ideally you want to see cashflow/balance growing as a result of increasing sales and margins, not just a reduction in working capital.

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UlladullaDave
Added 12 months ago

OTOH, there's a lot to be said for the business that can build a moat around low gross margins and negative WC. Don't make me get out the DuPont analysis.

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Strawman
Added 12 months ago

Good point @UlladullaDave! Just so long as the reduction in working capital is sustainable

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mikebrisy
Added 12 months ago

@Strawman and @UlladullaDave as $SGI grows its network and store sales, the big WC driver will be inventory, as is the case with all distribution business. This will grow.

While there will be pluses and minuses from year to year, particularly drive by any acquisitions they make, we should see working capital scale with revenue. However, if they grow an efficient network, then inventory should not grow linearly. In fact the growth exponenent should be closer to 0.5 (assuming a constant product range). This is one of the ways that scale benefits manifest in distributors, in addition to the usual Opex leverage we would hope to continue to see.

I agree with @LifeCapital we should on average expect the positive working capital benefit of the increased payables relative to inventory and receivables to unwind at some point. When and to what extent is I think anyone's guess.

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UlladullaDave
Added 12 months ago

Yes, good points, don't disagree with you @LifeCapital or @mikebrisy

They had this to say in the FY earnings call...

Going on to balance sheet, and probably there's 2 key call outs in this area. One is around cash with working capital management. Again, we've increased, as we touched on the cash flow, our cash is up $3 million. But importantly, our net working capital as a percentage of revenue fell to 9.6% compared to 11.5%. So as we grow, we've been disciplined in terms of what and how we've invested in the gross receivables, inventory and through our payables. And even more inventory has fallen 90 basis points as a percentage of revenue. Again, reducing the product lines as Mike sort of alluded to, is an automation analysis and just being that smarter and care about how we hold and manage our inventory. And again, we're seeing those sort of benefits.

I would expect WC to improve on a revenue basis going forward. That is a pretty important part of scaling a low margin business and what will drive incremental ROIC, imo. As to where period to period cashflow lands I have NFI, although obviously $900k NPAT and >$6.8m OCF isn't the sort of thing to expect every HY/FY.

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