Forum Topics NEU NEU ASX Announcements

Pinned straw:

Added 6 months ago

Interesting to see if the take-over speculation increases or simply fades away!


Comment on media speculation Melbourne, Australia:


Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX: NEU) notes an article published in the Australian newspaper, which stated “Neuren Pharmaceuticals is understood to have brought in a defence adviser after fielding buyer interest from US-based industry giants”.

Neuren appointed a corporate and strategic adviser several months ago. The appointment was a normal step in Neuren’s ongoing growth and development and not in response to any approaches from third parties. Media speculation to the contrary is unfounded.

mikebrisy
6 months ago

@Jimmy the defence process is a routine process conducted by most corporates. (I was responsible for this earlier in my career at a large overseas corporate in another industry).

A Board needs at all times to have a view, independent of management, of the value of the company. This is often provided by one of the investment banks with whom the company has an ongoing relationship. When I ran this process, the internal finance and strategy teams handed over documents that formed the basis of the management view of value. This involves more granular forecasts of operating and finance metrics. The investment bank than develops their own independent valuation.

The reason it is so important is that share prices can be volatile and a potential acquirer might lob in an opportunitist bid at a +30% premium that might look attractive to investors as a time of SP weakness. So the Board need to respond immediately as to what they are advising shareholders to do. And that advice has to be based on a robust valuation (otherwise the Board are not discharging their fiduciary duty).

In a company like $NEU, an up to date valuation is critical. As several of us on here have argued, $NEU is significantly undervalued. Valuation on DAYBUE alone is arguably worth a lot more than $20, with SP today around $15. Should there be a positive initial readout on NNZ-2591 (due in a few weeks), the risked value of the firm would increase materially.

However, it is likely that the market will be slow to digest this. Rare diseases are poorly understood by most healthcare analysts. And $NEU doesn't have a lot of coverage (I think there are only about 5 brokers / IBs that cover it.)

So it would be a disaster for shareholders if there is a positve NNZ-2591 result, and an acquirer lobs in a $25 offer. Pharma companies in the neurological space would be able to value this information effectively. I'd bet some have already prepared this valuation.

What make $NEU a bit unique is that any offer is de-risked because of the "proven" royalty revenue stream from DAYBUE. So a +67% premium to the SP could at the same time look compelling to "the market" while significantly undervaluing the company.

So I am glad that $NEU have their defence ready!

Disc: Held in RL and SM

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wtsimis
6 months ago

Mike, thanks so much for your insight and detail on this defence process very helpful in understanding how things may unfold .


Holder in RL and SM . Top 5 position

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Nnyck777
6 months ago

Useful to go back and have a look at the post #comparison to the Nasdaq. Reata was bought for $7.1 billion by big pharma as an interesting comparison. Mind you Reata only had 1 rare disease drug similar to Daybue but lower pop size and FDA pricing. Add NNZ2591 into the mix which has double to triple population treatment size to Rett in all 4 current indications in phase 2. Anyone sitting in this stock should be well aware of the potential of this upcoming drug. Neuren will be worth a lot more than $7billion if phase 2 are succesful.

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