Forum Topics DUG DUG Selldown

Pinned straw:

Added one year ago

Alot of selling occuring in DUG over the past 3-4 days.

Wilsons (WMI). Who had listed themselves as a significant shareholder since values of ~$1.50-60. They have sold down and are no longer a significant shareholder. They have also listed DUG as a top 20 holding over the same period, which probably equates to about a 5% position for them, at a minimum.

Sheila Lamont, who is the spouse of the founder and MD has sold off 2.5m shares. Together they still hold a significant # of >21m shares. By my calculations they together still own around 20% of the company.


However. This has seen some significant downside to the share price, falling ~20%.


So the question is..... Is now a good time to buy


TycoonTerry
Added one year ago

There is now director buying on market at $1.6 for 40k parcel.

Regal have also topped up significantly.

I have added IRL and on SM.

5
rh8178
Added one year ago

It's an interesting couple of days for the stock. Gave me a moment to pause for thought, but I ended up with the view that none of these announcements are relevant to DUG's underlying business performance. My view remains unchanged on my previous views on it, that is a quality business just crossing into profitability and free cash flow, with a (still) significant founder interest. On that basis, I'm considering adding to my IRL portfolio (although it's a pretty high allocation already).

Hold DUG IRL and in SM port.

8

edgescape
Added one year ago

Stop losses would have also got triggered in the process.

Wilson asset management seems to have a good habit of holding and averaging down on unloved stocks.

Widgee Nickel, Atomos, Equatorial Resources, Capital Health, Tyro and AMP.

I don't think there's much to worry about either. One thing you learn is everyone has a different view on what is value.

See below:

35dc6da502784d4ed14fd218cb4862b924a13a.png

9f471ccec57777128cbfba4abcad884db21192.png

7

Dominator
Added one year ago

Agree with all. Nothing has changed over the last week or so.

I've found WAM tends to trade positions rather than being a buy and hold type fund.

DUG Chairman bought a $40k parcel at around $1.68 (30/11) and Regal continuing to add to their position with some shares bought at a price above $2 over the recent past.

I'll be looking to add once the downwards momentum has stopped.

7

TycoonTerry
Added one year ago

I wouldn’t be saying Wilson’s didn’t love the stock. They definitely locked in some large profits since becoming a substantial holder around $1.5.

Likely that they could have been averaging up well before that and wanted to lock in the profit. It’s lame for the long term view but it meets there short and medium term agenda.

I have seen them buy in and out of stocks in the past on valuation as they release there monthly updates.


I second the thoughts here that really this is a buying opportunity

7

Bear77
Added one year ago

Just in regard to Wilson Asset Management, a few points why they tend to sell out of positions, often after relatively short periods as holders.

  1. They are catalyst driven, so they invest only when they have identified one or more positive potential catalysts that should cause the share price to rise, and they will sell out once the catalyst(s) has occurred and the market has responded in relation to that stock, unless they can identify an additional catalyst or two that should drive the share price higher still.
  2. They are happy to make a number of bets (invest in a lot of companies) and be wrong 5 or 6 times out of every 10, as long as they sell out immediately (or as quickly as possible with low liquidity companies) once they know they've made a bad call by buying that company. This one is about cutting out quickly whenever the investment thesis turns out to be flawed, for whatever reason.
  3. They have to keep locking in profits to generate franking credits because they try to pay an increasing stream of fully franked dividends for their investors. This is harder with WMI because many microcaps don't pay fully franked dividends (many don't pay dividends at all), and when they do they tend to be at the smaller end in terms of dividend yield (and payout ratios) because these microcap companies need to reinvest for growth, so paying dividends often doesn't make much sense for smaller companies that are trying to grow at a good clip. Therefore, most of the franking credits that WMI accumulate have to come from paying tax on trading profits. This is also the case with WGB (the global LIC, because overseas companies don't pay Australian tax, so don't generate franking credits) and WMA (the Alternatives LIC, because they're not generally investing in companies, they are investing in water rights, PE funds, property, debt, all sorts of stuff that may be held by the underlying asset owner/manager for years without locking in any profits, so - again - franking credits are generally created within WMA from tax paid on capital gains. This need to keep locking in profits to generate capital gains is a further driver for regular trading in and out of companies (or other assets in the case of WMA).
  4. Wilsons employ a large team of investment professionals that support their five lead portfolio managers (who manage 8 LICs between them - Oscar Oberg manages 4 [WAM, WAX, WAA & WMI] and the other 4 LPMs manage 1 LIC each), so, unlike a company like Deterra Royalties (DRR) who always try to justify their headcount and overheads yet do absolutely nothing except analyse opportunities and then say "No", Wilson Asset Management want regular ideas and results from their large team, and their comfort around making mistakes as long as they exit those mistakes early means that many of those ideas will get a run within one or more of their LICs.


In DUGs case, I'm thinking it's #1 and #3 that are mainly responsible for them exiting, but just thought I'd point out that we should probably expect that Wilson's LICs will often be in a company for a good time rather than a long time.

13
edgescape
Added one year ago

Capitulation selling today again

Can't believe people sell because fund exiting

Regal also holders too also.

7

Bear77
Added one year ago

I think sometimes people sell because the share price is falling and they don't know why, so they panic and assume that someone knows something that they don't, and they exit the stock. I think that typical market overreaction is good, in that it presents regular opportunities for the patient. That said, I'm not invested in DUG. However, I have noted that sell-downs often enter something like a self-perpetuating spiral, where the lower the SP goes, the more people panic and sell, often based on not much more than fear or panic.

13