Forum Topics SGI SGI SGI valuation

Pinned valuation:

Valuation deleted

PinchOfSalt
Added 2 years ago

This is a bold set of assumptions from @wtsimis and I'd like to suggest a contrary position.

It's never smooth sailing. Something will go wrong and put a dent in profit, even if revenue keeps increasing. I've held so many companies that look great but year-after-year there is some extraordinary item that kills the NPAT and/or cash flow. This is more likely with a company that has turned around quickly or been through hard times.

In SGI's recent past, margins were low and cash was tight, so there are likely some pent-up demands for expenditure and/or accounting adjustments. For example:

  • profit was inflated by not writing off or writing down stock. Suddenly a whole lot of old stock gets written off
  • Computer systems haven't had budget and are creaking with the increased load / complexity. Then an expensive systems upgrade is announced
  • Leases roll-over at much higher rates. Or new executive positions are created, increasing overheads.
  • Management gives themselves a pat on the back and a big bonus for doing so well - to the detriment of shareholders
  • Some legal or tax concern comes to light and puts a hole in the financials
  • Goodwill of past acquisitions gets a write down (this one is not cash and can be added back)
  • A new ill-consider acquisition gets announced with a capital raise causing dilution and poor returns on capital


So, while @Strawman and others correctly called out the massive up-side from increasing margins, there are a lot of black (or grey) swans that could appear before the next re-rate.

Note: I continue to hold IRL because, on balance, I'm positive. But valuing for rapid revenue growth AND significant margin improvement seems naive.

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mikebrisy
Added 2 years ago

Great post @PinchOfSalt. Lots of things can go wrong, and with a nanocap with thin margins it doesn’t take much for an upset.

While I’m also very positive about $SGI, I am disciplined on keeping a small position size, even if I am still adding.

A month ago, I’d have never predicted the #shitshow at $RFT, and now, what do you guess happened? But I sleep well as I have kept a small position mindful of the risk. In doing that I equally won’t enjoy the upside if the risks don’t materialise. But that’s the choice each of us has to make for themselves.

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wtsimis
Added 2 years ago

Thanks @PinchOfSalt an @mikebrisy no disagreement on your thinking in terms of what may and in many cases will go wrong, but i would say that their maybe as many ways or more Stealth will win that also has not been outlined.

What you state as to what may go wrong is a refection of the management and trust in many cases on how they operate. This is where i have stronger conviction leading to good results. Mike and the team have shown to be disciplined in their manner leading to improved results. This may change but that's what has led to the improved results and positive outlook.

In terms of my valuation yes i am optimistic look forward to the next 18 months to see where Stealth ultimately land.

What i also see as positive for the business will be the dividend distribution which if FCF continues to grow may see a yield of over 5% FF.

Appreciate your contrary view.

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